luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Bucked Up LA Bowl · December 13, 2025

Boise State vs Washington, Bucked Up LA Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Washington beat Boise State 38–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Washington wins 10 of 10. Boise State had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Boise State.

Before kickoff Washington was a 74% favorite.

Final

Boise State Broncos 10
Washington Huskies 38

December 13, 2025 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Washington −10

Luck index +3 Washington about even · −3 Boise State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Boise State wins 0, Washington wins 10.

  1. 1 BOIS 23 WASH 28
  2. 2 BOIS 27 WASH 39
  3. 3 BOIS 14 WASH 31
  4. 4 BOIS 10 WASH 30
  5. 5 BOIS 17 WASH 41
  6. 6 BOIS 24 WASH 52
  7. 7 BOIS 10 WASH 42
  8. 8 BOIS 13 WASH 49
  9. 9 BOIS 10 WASH 51
  10. 10 BOIS 23 WASH 73

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Boise State wins 3% of them, Washington 97%. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Boise State by 17+0.3%
Boise State by 9–160.7%
Boise State by 1–81.9%
Level after regulation0.4%
Washington by 1–85.5%
Washington by 9–1610.0%
Washington by 17+81.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.3 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 28, without the luck Washington by 27.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Boomer, 52 yds made · 50% expected
  • G. Gross, 33 yds made · 82% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Boise State 6 for 30 yards, Washington 7 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Offside on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BOIS +1.5 pts
Q1 15:00 Illegal Motion on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap +6% WASH +4.4 pts
Q2 10:46 Illegal Block on Washington, 10 yards +1% BOIS +0.6 pts
Q2 1:56 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.2 pts
Q2 0:53 Illegal Formation on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.6 pts
Q2 0:53 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +2.4 pts
Q3 12:05 Roughing the Passer on Washington, 15 yards 0% BOIS +1.9 pts
Q3 7:18 Offside on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +4.1 pts
Q4 14:45 Delay of Game on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.8 pts
Q4 14:45 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.6 pts
Q4 9:50 False Start on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.8 pts
Q4 9:10 Offside on Boise State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WASH +0.6 pts
Q4 6:19 Offside on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% BOIS +0.9 pts

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while Boise State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Offside on Washington, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsIllegal Motion on Boise State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% WASH BOIS: Field goal
2 Q1 11:35 Washington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expectedWashington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedWashington converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedWashington was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedC. Boomer made a 52-yard field goalKicks · 50% expected for him, 2 of 4 from 45+ before +3% WASH WASH: End of half
3 Q1 4:20 Boise State converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedG. Gross made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 82% expected for him +8% BOIS BOIS: End of half
4 Q1 0:00 Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +2% BOIS BOIS: End of half
5 Q2 13:51 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +3% BOIS WASH: Punt
6 Q2 11:55 Boise State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% WASH BOIS: Punt
7 Q2 9:48 Boise State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedBoise State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +1% WASH BOIS: Turnover on downs
8 Q2 4:59 Boise State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expectedWashington converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% WASH BOIS: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Boise State 0% · Washington 100%

Final margin
Washington by 28
Luck in points
0.3 for Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 27.7
Replay with same day's form
Boise State 3% · Washington 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Boise State · Washington

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