SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl · December 31, 2025
Nebraska vs Utah, SRS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Utah beat Nebraska 44–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Utah wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Utah was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 22 |
|---|---|
 Utah Utes | 44 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 Utah about even · −6 Nebraska
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Nebraska wins 1, Utah wins 9.
- 1 NEB 23 UTAH 17
- 2 NEB 24 UTAH 28
- 3 NEB 16 UTAH 24
- 4 NEB 31 UTAH 44
- 5 NEB 7 UTAH 24
- 6 NEB 14 UTAH 34
- 7 NEB 13 UTAH 35
- 8 NEB 7 UTAH 34
- 9 NEB 14 UTAH 45
- 10 NEB 17 UTAH 56
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Nebraska wins 6% of them, Utah 94%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Utah by 22.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Nebraska by 17+ | 0.6% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 1.7% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 3.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.7% |
| Utah by 1–8 | 13.9% |
| Utah by 9–16 | 15.3% |
| Utah by 17+ | 64.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Curtis, 28 yds made · 88% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Nebraska 4 for 25 yards, Utah 3 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 0:16 | False Start on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NEB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 8:35 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTAH +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:11 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 15 yards | +1% UTAH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 8:03 | Pass Interference on Utah, 15 yards | 0% NEB +1.4 pts |
| Q3 3:31 | Delay of Game on Utah, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:04 | Holding on Nebraska, 0 yards, wiping out the play | 0% UTAH +1.0 pts |
| Q4 7:36 | False Start on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UTAH +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Utah’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:49 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 5:20 | Nebraska converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +2% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 3:26 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +4% NEB | NEB: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:00 | Utah fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% UTAH | UTAH: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 10:05 | Utah converted 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expected | +6% UTAH | UTAH: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 6:21 | Utah was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +3% NEB | UTAH: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 6:12 | Utah converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +5% UTAH | UTAH: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 0:20 | Utah converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +4% UTAH | UTAH: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Nebraska 0% · Utah 100%
- Final margin
- Utah by 22
- Luck in points
- 3.3 for Utah
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Utah by 18.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Nebraska 6% · Utah 94% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Nebraska · 
Utah
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