GameAbove Sports Bowl · December 26, 2025
Central Michigan vs Northwestern, GameAbove Sports Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Northwestern beat Central Michigan 34–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Northwestern wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Northwestern was an 81% favorite.
Final
 Central Michigan Chippewas | 7 |
|---|---|
 Northwestern Wildcats | 34 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +11 Northwestern about even · −11 Central Michigan
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Central Michigan wins 1, Northwestern wins 9.
- 1 CMU 35 NU 30
- 2 CMU 27 NU 30
- 3 CMU 14 NU 21
- 4 CMU 17 NU 27
- 5 CMU 14 NU 28
- 6 CMU 20 NU 37
- 7 CMU 10 NU 32
- 8 CMU 14 NU 41
- 9 CMU 10 NU 41
- 10 CMU 13 NU 52
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Central Michigan wins 11% of them, Northwestern 89%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Northwestern by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Central Michigan by 17+ | 1.4% |
| Central Michigan by 9–16 | 2.7% |
| Central Michigan by 1–8 | 6.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Northwestern by 17+ | 51.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Graham, 43 yds missed · 68% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Central Michigan 5 for 46 yards, Northwestern 2 for 20 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:06 | Delay of Game on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:36 | Delay of Game on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CMU +0.2 pts |
| Q3 12:39 | Face Mask on Central Michigan, 15 yards | 0% NU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 9:19 | False Start on Central Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 2:42 | Pass Interference on Central Michigan, 14 yards | 0% NU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 12:00 | Block Below the Waist on Central Michigan, 7 yards | 0% NU +1.0 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | Roughing the Passer on Northwestern, 15 yards | 0% CMU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Northwestern’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:32 | Northwestern was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +4% CMU | NU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:03 | C. Graham missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him | +5% NU | CMU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:12 | Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% CMU | NU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 2:13 | Central Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% NU | CMU: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 14:11 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +4% NU | NU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:18 | Central Michigan converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +3% CMU | CMU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q2 6:33 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +2% NU | NU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 6:24 | Central Michigan fumbled and Northwestern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% NU | CMU: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Central Michigan 1% · Northwestern 99%
- Final margin
- Northwestern by 27
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for Northwestern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Northwestern by 16.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Central Michigan 11% · Northwestern 89% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Central Michigan · 
Northwestern
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