luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Myrtle Beach Bowl · December 19, 2025

Kennesaw State vs Western Michigan, Myrtle Beach Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Western Michigan beat Kennesaw State 41–6, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Michigan wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Western Michigan was a 59% favorite.

Final

Kennesaw State Owls 6
Western Michigan Broncos 41

December 19, 2025 · Brooks Stadium (SC) · Closing line: Western Michigan −3.5

Luck index +1 Western Michigan about even · −1 Kennesaw State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Kennesaw State wins 0, Western Michigan wins 10.

  1. 1 KENN 11 WMU 20
  2. 2 KENN 10 WMU 27
  3. 3 KENN 14 WMU 37
  4. 4 KENN 3 WMU 31
  5. 5 KENN 7 WMU 38
  6. 6 KENN 10 WMU 45
  7. 7 KENN 3 WMU 41
  8. 8 KENN 6 WMU 50
  9. 9 KENN 0 WMU 49
  10. 10 KENN 10 WMU 68

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Kennesaw State wins 1% of them, Western Michigan 99%. The line is what actually happened: Western Michigan by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Kennesaw State by 17+0.0%
Kennesaw State by 9–160.1%
Kennesaw State by 1–80.5%
Level after regulation0.3%
Western Michigan by 1–82.2%
Western Michigan by 9–164.1%
Western Michigan by 17+92.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.0 points to Western Michigan: the final margin was Western Michigan by 35, without the luck Western Michigan by 31. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • B. Williams, 34 yds missed · 79% expected
  • P. Domschke, 40 yds missed · 70% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Kennesaw State 8 for 75 yards, Western Michigan 7 for 75 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:28 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +1% WMU +0.6 pts
Q1 2:38 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards +1% WMU +1.4 pts
Q2 15:00 Offside on Kennesaw State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WMU +2.1 pts
Q2 9:14 Face Mask on Kennesaw State, 4 yards 0% WMU +1.0 pts
Q2 7:45 Offside on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.8 pts
Q2 3:32 Personal Foul on Western Michigan, 15 yards 0% KENN +1.6 pts
Q2 3:32 Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% WMU +1.6 pts
Q3 13:26 Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards 0% KENN +2.4 pts
Q3 10:25 Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% KENN +0.9 pts
Q3 6:27 Holding on Kennesaw State, 6 yards 0% WMU +0.4 pts
Q4 12:10 Face Mask on Kennesaw State, 15 yards 0% WMU +1.6 pts
Q4 12:10 Holding on Western Michigan, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% KENN +2.0 pts
Q4 12:10 Personal Foul on Kennesaw State, 15 yards 0% WMU +1.6 pts
Q4 12:10 False Start on Western Michigan, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% KENN +0.5 pts
Q4 5:35 Pass Interference on Western Michigan, 15 yards 0% KENN +1.5 pts

When it happened

Western Michigan’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Western Michigan was ahead in it, below while Kennesaw State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:44 Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedKennesaw State fumbled and Western Michigan recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Western MichiganSpecial teams +2% KENN KENN: Punt
2 Q1 12:28 Western Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedWestern Michigan converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedHolding on Kennesaw State, 10 yardsJudgment calls +1% WMU WMU: End of half
3 Q1 7:39 Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +1% WMU KENN: Punt
4 Q1 4:07 Western Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +0% WMU WMU: Touchdown
5 Q2 15:00 Western Michigan converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expectedWestern Michigan was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedOffside on Kennesaw State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +1% WMU WMU: End of half
6 Q2 10:39 Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +0% WMU KENN: Punt
7 Q2 7:45 Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expectedOffside on Western Michigan, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% KENN KENN: Punt
8 Q3 4:10 Kennesaw State missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 98% of the time +0% WMU KENN: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Kennesaw State 0% · Western Michigan 100%

Final margin
Western Michigan by 35
Luck in points
4.0 for Western Michigan
Luck-adjusted margin
Western Michigan by 31.0
Replay with same day's form
Kennesaw State 1% · Western Michigan 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Kennesaw State · Western Michigan

More from Bowl games 2025

Every bowl games game, 2025