Bush's Boca Raton Bowl · December 23, 2025
Toledo vs Louisville, Bush's Boca Raton Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat Toledo 27–22, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisville wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisville was a 79% favorite.
Final
 Toledo Rockets | 22 |
|---|---|
 Louisville Cardinals | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +19 Louisville about even · −19 Toledo
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Toledo wins 2, Louisville wins 8.
- 1 TOL 22 LOU 7
- 2 TOL 17 LOU 14
- 3 TOL 7 LOU 10
- 4 TOL 10 LOU 17
- 5 TOL 3 LOU 14
- 6 TOL 10 LOU 24
- 7 TOL 14 LOU 32
- 8 TOL 10 LOU 31
- 9 TOL 10 LOU 35
- 10 TOL 14 LOU 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Toledo wins 19% of them, Louisville 81%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Toledo by 17+ | 2.4% |
| Toledo by 9–16 | 5.0% |
| Toledo by 1–8 | 9.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.9% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 20.0% |
| Louisville by 17+ | 42.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Hammond III, 41 yds made · 71% expected
- R. Hammond III, 41 yds missed · 71% expected
- R. Hammond III, 50 yds made · 53% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: Toledo 13 for 90 yards, Louisville 5 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:59 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TOL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 5:14 | Equipment Violation on Toledo, 5 yards | +2% TOL +2.7 pts |
| Q1 4:23 | Offside on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TOL +1.0 pts |
| Q1 1:04 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 14:24 | Face Mask on Toledo, 15 yards | +2% LOU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 9:46 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:27 | Ineligible Downfield on Toledo, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% LOU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:36 | Roughing the Passer on Toledo, 15 yards | +1% LOU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Illegal Substitution on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.3 pts |
| Q2 0:46 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yards | +2% TOL +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:42 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LOU +1.8 pts |
| Q3 2:22 | Illegal Formation on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 13:59 | False Start on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:09 | False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TOL +0.4 pts |
| Q4 8:11 | Targeting on Louisville, 15 yards | +3% TOL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 1:50 | Offside on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:17 | Illegal Substitution on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:44 | Delay of Game on Toledo, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LOU +0.2 pts |
When it happened
Louisville’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 8:10 | Louisville fumbled and Toledo recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% TOL | LOU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 0:46 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% TOL | LOU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 13:23 | Toledo converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +4% TOL | TOL: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 9:42 | Holding on Toledo, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 8:35 | R. Hammond III missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him | +6% LOU | TOL: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 7:06 | Louisville converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +5% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 10:42 | Toledo converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedToledo’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +3% TOL | TOL: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 8:11 | Targeting on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% TOL | TOL: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Toledo 6% · Louisville 94%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 5
- Luck in points
- 5.4 for Toledo
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 10.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Toledo 19% · Louisville 81% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
Toledo · 
Louisville
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