luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl · December 27, 2025

Miami (OH) vs Fresno State, Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Fresno State beat Miami (OH) 18–3, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Fresno State was a 64% favorite.

Final

Miami (OH) RedHawks 3
Fresno State Bulldogs 18

December 27, 2025 · Arizona Stadium · Closing line: Fresno State −5.5

Luck index +24 Fresno State about even · −24 Miami (OH)

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Miami (OH) wins 2, Fresno State wins 8.

  1. 1 M-OH 24 FRES 13
  2. 2 M-OH 14 FRES 10
  3. 3 M-OH 7 FRES 10
  4. 4 M-OH 17 FRES 23
  5. 5 M-OH 3 FRES 13
  6. 6 M-OH 14 FRES 26
  7. 7 M-OH 5 FRES 20
  8. 8 M-OH 6 FRES 24
  9. 9 M-OH 7 FRES 28
  10. 10 M-OH 7 FRES 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Miami (OH) wins 24% of them, Fresno State 76%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Fresno State by 15.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Miami (OH) by 17+2.8%
Miami (OH) by 9–165.8%
Miami (OH) by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation0.9%
Fresno State by 1–823.1%
Fresno State by 9–1625.7%
Fresno State by 17+27.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.7 points to Fresno State: the final margin was Fresno State by 15, without the luck Fresno State by 10.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. Dzioban, 33 yds made · 88% expected
  • D. Lynch, 28 yds made · 89% expected
  • D. Lynch, 23 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Lynch, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Lynch, 28 yds missed · 89% expected
  • D. Lynch, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Miami (OH) 4 for 39 yards, Fresno State 8 for 70 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:40 Illegal Touching on Fresno State, 5 yards +4% M-OH +1.9 pts
Q1 7:24 Holding on Fresno State, 10 yards +3% M-OH +1.5 pts
Q1 2:27 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards +3% FRES +1.4 pts
Q2 4:09 Personal Foul on Fresno State, 15 yards +4% M-OH +1.6 pts
Q2 2:20 Illegal Substitution on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% FRES +0.1 pts
Q2 1:00 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% M-OH +0.1 pts
Q3 12:10 False Start on Fresno State, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% M-OH +0.8 pts
Q4 13:47 Roughing the Passer on Miami (OH), 14 yards +2% FRES +0.8 pts
Q4 11:06 Holding on Miami (OH), 10 yards +1% FRES +1.3 pts
Q4 9:33 Roughing the Passer on Fresno State, 15 yards +2% M-OH +1.2 pts
Q4 9:33 False Start on Miami (OH), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% FRES +0.9 pts
Q4 2:46 Pass Interference on Fresno State, 10 yards 0% M-OH +0.5 pts

When it happened

Fresno State’s chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Fresno State was ahead in it, below while Miami (OH) was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:00 Fresno State converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +7% FRES FRES: Punt
2 Q2 8:39 Fresno State fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% FRES FRES: Field goal
3 Q2 1:09 Miami (OH) fumbled and Fresno State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% FRES M-OH: Punt
4 Q3 13:18 Miami (OH) converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% M-OH M-OH: Punt
5 Q3 10:38 Fresno State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% FRES FRES: Missed field goal
6 Q3 6:52 D. Lynch missed a 28-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +6% M-OH FRES: Punt
7 Q3 4:03 Fresno State was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +5% M-OH FRES: Punt
8 Q3 1:37 Fresno State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% FRES FRES: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Miami (OH) 5% · Fresno State 95%

Final margin
Fresno State by 15
Luck in points
4.7 for Fresno State
Luck-adjusted margin
Fresno State by 10.3
Replay with same day's form
Miami (OH) 24% · Fresno State 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Miami (OH) · Fresno State

More from Bowl games 2025

Every bowl games game, 2025