Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl · December 24, 2025
California at Hawai'i, Sheraton Hawaiʻi Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?
Hawai'i beat California 35–31, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, California wins 9 of 10.
Hawai'i won on an off day: its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against California it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%. The numbers
Before kickoff Hawai'i was a 54% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:43 left): Unsportsmanlike Conduct on California, 15 yards, worth 9 points of win probability to Hawai'i.
Final
 California Golden Bears | 31 |
|---|---|
 Hawai'i Rainbow Warriors | 35 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +91 Hawai'i very lucky · −91 California
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. California wins 9, Hawai'i wins 1.
- 1 CAL 49 HAW 7
- 2 CAL 34 HAW 0
- 3 CAL 45 HAW 17
- 4 CAL 44 HAW 21
- 5 CAL 41 HAW 21
- 6 CAL 40 HAW 24
- 7 CAL 28 HAW 14
- 8 CAL 40 HAW 31
- 9 CAL 42 HAW 38
- 10 CAL 21 HAW 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Hawai'i won on an off day
Its defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against California it would win 55% of the time; with this day’s form, 9%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
46 points apart for Hawai'i: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| California offenseEPA per play gained | +0.19 | +0.07 | better by 0.13 |
| California defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.27 | +0.06 | worse by 0.21 |
| Hawai'i offenseEPA per play gained | +0.27 | +0.12 | better by 0.14 |
| Hawai'i defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.19 | +0.06 | worse by 0.13 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
California wins 91% of them, Hawai'i 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Hawai'i by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| California by 17+ | 61.6% |
| California by 9–16 | 17.7% |
| California by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Hawai'i by 1–8 | 4.6% |
| Hawai'i by 9–16 | 1.3% |
| Hawai'i by 17+ | 0.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- K. Matsuzawa, 50 yds missed · 57% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 29 yds made · 90% expected
- A. Murray, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
- K. Matsuzawa, 39 yds made · 77% expected
- C. Meyer, 22 yds made · 93% expected
Penalties: California 7 for 70 yards, Hawai'i 8 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:48 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% CAL +0.7 pts |
| Q1 0:10 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAW +0.2 pts |
| Q2 13:44 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +2% CAL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:17 | False Start on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAW +0.3 pts |
| Q2 3:54 | Holding on California, 10 yards | +1% HAW +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:55 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HAW +0.5 pts |
| Q2 0:54 | Holding on Hawai'i, 10 yards | +2% CAL +1.0 pts |
| Q2 0:48 | Face Mask on California, 15 yards | +3% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q3 3:36 | Personal Foul on California, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +4% HAW +2.2 pts |
| Q4 12:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on Hawai'i, 15 yards | +7% CAL +1.7 pts |
| Q4 7:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on California, 15 yards | +9% HAW +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:14 | False Start on California, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% HAW +0.4 pts |
| Q4 4:50 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 4:31 | Offside on Hawai'i, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CAL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:25 | Offside on Hawai'i, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CAL +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Hawai'i’s chance of winning
As low as 7% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:57 | K. Matsuzawa missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 6 of 6 from 45+ before | +5% CAL | HAW: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 3:36 | Personal Foul on California, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +4% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q3 1:11 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 13:50 | Hawai'i’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 12:06 | Unnecessary Roughness on Hawai'i, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% CAL | CAL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:43 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on California, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +9% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 6:18 | California converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +8% CAL | CAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:41 | Hawai'i converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +8% HAW | HAW: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
California 33% · Hawai'i 67%
- Final margin
- Hawai'i by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Hawai'i
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Hawai'i by 2.7
- Replay with same day's form
- California 91% · Hawai'i 9% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · 
California · 
Hawai'i
More from Bowl games 2025
- Pittsburgh vs East Carolina ECU 23–17 · replay 19% for the winner
- Virginia vs Missouri UVA 13–7 · replay 22% for the winner
- Arizona State vs Duke DUKE 42–39 · replay 44% for the winner
- Miami (OH) vs Fresno State FRES 18–3 · replay 76% for the winner
- North Texas vs San Diego State UNT 49–47 · replay 78% for the winner
- Penn State vs Clemson PSU 22–10 · replay 78% for the winner
- Wake Forest vs Mississippi State WAKE 43–29 · replay 80% for the winner
- UNLV vs Ohio OHIO 17–10 · replay 80% for the winner
- Toledo vs Louisville LOU 27–22 · replay 81% for the winner
- Georgia Tech vs BYU BYU 25–21 · replay 82% for the winner
- Arizona vs SMU SMU 24–19 · replay 84% for the winner
- Washington State vs Utah State WSU 34–21 · replay 96% for the winner