luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Go Bowling Military Bowl · December 27, 2025

Pittsburgh vs East Carolina, Go Bowling Military Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

East Carolina beat Pittsburgh 23–17, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, Pittsburgh wins 8 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 10 points of win probability to East Carolina.

Before kickoff Pittsburgh was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:33 left): Return touchdown by Pittsburgh, worth 40 points of win probability to Pittsburgh.

Final

Pittsburgh Panthers 17
East Carolina Pirates 23

December 27, 2025 · Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium · Closing line: Pittsburgh −12.5

Luck index +81 East Carolina very lucky · −81 Pittsburgh

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Pittsburgh wins 8, East Carolina wins 2.

  1. 1 PITT 34 ECU 0
  2. 2 PITT 24 ECU 0
  3. 3 PITT 34 ECU 14
  4. 4 PITT 20 ECU 3
  5. 5 PITT 23 ECU 9
  6. 6 PITT 20 ECU 10
  7. 7 PITT 31 ECU 24
  8. 8 PITT 19 ECU 17
  9. 9 PITT 13 ECU 17
  10. 10 PITT 10 ECU 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Pittsburgh wins 81% of them, East Carolina 19%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Pittsburgh by 17+41.5%
Pittsburgh by 9–1620.4%
Pittsburgh by 1–818.9%
Level after regulation2.9%
East Carolina by 1–810.3%
East Carolina by 9–164.0%
East Carolina by 17+2.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.7 points to East Carolina: the final margin was East Carolina by 6, without the luck East Carolina by 4.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Mazzie, 51 yds missed · 54% expected
  • N. Mazzie, 42 yds made · 70% expected
  • N. Mazzie, 33 yds made · 85% expected
  • N. Mazzie, 28 yds made · 90% expected
  • T. Butkowski, 21 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Pittsburgh 3 for 35 yards, East Carolina 5 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 13:04 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards, wiping out the play +8% ECU +3.7 pts
Q2 11:56 False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PITT +0.5 pts
Q2 6:33 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards +2% PITT +1.0 pts
Q2 1:58 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards +2% PITT +0.8 pts
Q3 4:56 Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards +4% PITT +1.2 pts
Q3 1:09 Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yards · pre-snap +9% ECU +2.3 pts
Q4 11:35 Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% PITT +0.8 pts
Q4 0:13 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards +3% ECU +0.6 pts

When it happened

East Carolina’s chance of winning

As low as 12% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while East Carolina was ahead in it, below while Pittsburgh was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 13:04 Pass Interference on Pittsburgh, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% ECU ECU: Field goal
2 Q2 8:35 Pittsburgh was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +7% ECU PITT: Punt
3 Q3 8:17 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +9% PITT PITT: Punt
4 Q3 4:33 East Carolina fumbled and Pittsburgh recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by PittsburghSpecial teams +40% PITT ECU: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:17 Pittsburgh fumbled and East Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% ECU PITT: Turnover
6 Q3 1:09 Offside on Pittsburgh, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +9% ECU ECU: Field goal
7 Q4 11:12 Pittsburgh converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +8% PITT PITT: Turnover
8 Q4 4:19 Pittsburgh was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +9% ECU PITT: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Pittsburgh 29% · East Carolina 71%

Final margin
East Carolina by 6
Luck in points
1.7 for East Carolina
Luck-adjusted margin
East Carolina by 4.3
Replay with same day's form
Pittsburgh 81% · East Carolina 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Pittsburgh · East Carolina

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