luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

StaffDNA Cure Bowl · December 17, 2025

Old Dominion vs South Florida, StaffDNA Cure Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Old Dominion beat South Florida 24–10, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff South Florida was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 4:28 left): Old Dominion fumbled and recovered it, worth 9 points of win probability to Old Dominion.

Final

Old Dominion Monarchs 24
South Florida Bulls 10

December 17, 2025 · Camping World Stadium · Closing line: South Florida −4

Luck index +37 Old Dominion lucky · −37 South Florida

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Old Dominion wins 6, South Florida wins 4.

  1. 1 ODU 37 USF 10
  2. 2 ODU 28 USF 10
  3. 3 ODU 34 USF 20
  4. 4 ODU 23 USF 13
  5. 5 ODU 29 USF 24
  6. 6 ODU 8 USF 6
  7. 7 ODU 13 USF 16
  8. 8 ODU 14 USF 20
  9. 9 ODU 10 USF 20
  10. 10 ODU 17 USF 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Old Dominion wins 63% of them, South Florida 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Old Dominion by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Old Dominion by 17+21.9%
Old Dominion by 9–1617.5%
Old Dominion by 1–823.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
South Florida by 1–816.4%
South Florida by 9–1611.4%
South Florida by 17+7.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.1 points to Old Dominion: the final margin was Old Dominion by 14, without the luck Old Dominion by 7.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • N. Gramatica, 28 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 48 yds missed · 60% expected
  • N. Gramatica, 39 yds missed · 76% expected
  • N. Eichner, 24 yds made · 91% expected
  • N. Eichner, 36 yds missed · 78% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Old Dominion 6 for 70 yards, South Florida 7 for 65 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:11 False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.6 pts
Q1 0:58 Roughing the Passer on South Florida, 6 yards +2% ODU +1.1 pts
Q1 0:36 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% USF +0.7 pts
Q2 6:21 Kick Catch Interference on Old Dominion, 15 yards +2% USF +0.9 pts
Q3 12:54 False Start on Old Dominion, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% USF +0.7 pts
Q3 8:34 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards +5% USF +1.6 pts
Q3 4:28 Targeting on South Florida, 9 yards +4% ODU +1.3 pts
Q3 3:22 Personal Foul on Old Dominion, 15 yards +5% USF +1.6 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ODU +0.6 pts
Q4 12:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yards +5% ODU +1.2 pts
Q4 12:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yards +1% ODU +0.3 pts
Q4 11:49 Holding on South Florida, 10 yards +2% ODU +0.6 pts
Q4 3:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Old Dominion, 15 yards +2% USF +1.2 pts

When it happened

South Florida’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while South Florida was ahead in it, below while Old Dominion was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:21 Old Dominion fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% USF ODU: Touchdown
2 Q2 14:48 South Florida converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% USF USF: Missed field goal
3 Q3 10:06 Old Dominion converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +7% ODU ODU: Field goal
4 Q3 7:40 N. Gramatica missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him +9% ODU USF: Punt
5 Q3 4:28 Old Dominion fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Targeting on South Florida, 9 yardsJudgment calls +9% ODU ODU: Field goal
6 Q3 1:57 South Florida converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% USF USF: Punt
7 Q4 12:34 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% ODU ODU: Missed field goal
8 Q4 5:54 N. Eichner missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him +7% USF ODU: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Old Dominion 88% · South Florida 12%

Final margin
Old Dominion by 14
Luck in points
6.1 for Old Dominion
Luck-adjusted margin
Old Dominion by 7.9
Replay with same day's form
Old Dominion 63% · South Florida 37% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Old Dominion · South Florida

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