luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

JLab Birmingham Bowl · December 29, 2025

Georgia Southern vs App State, JLab Birmingham Bowl 2025: who deserved to win?

Georgia Southern beat App State 29–10, but the replays lean toward App State: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.

Georgia Southern won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against App State it would win 78% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%. The numbers

Before kickoff Georgia Southern was a 74% favorite.

Final

Georgia Southern Eagles 29
App State Mountaineers 10

December 29, 2025 · Protective Stadium · Closing line: Georgia Southern −10

Luck index +60 Georgia Southern very lucky · −60 App State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 4, App State wins 6.

  1. 1 GASO 55 APP 31
  2. 2 GASO 41 APP 28
  3. 3 GASO 35 APP 28
  4. 4 GASO 20 APP 17
  5. 5 GASO 28 APP 31
  6. 6 GASO 24 APP 30
  7. 7 GASO 35 APP 45
  8. 8 GASO 13 APP 27
  9. 9 GASO 24 APP 45
  10. 10 GASO 14 APP 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

Georgia Southern won on an off day

Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against App State it would win 78% of the time; with this day’s form, 40%.

38 points apart for Georgia Southern: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Georgia Southern offenseEPA per play gained −0.02 +0.11 worse by 0.13
Georgia Southern defenseEPA per play allowed +0.08 +0.15 better by 0.06
App State offenseEPA per play gained +0.08 +0.09 worse by 0.00
App State defenseEPA per play allowed −0.02 +0.14 better by 0.17

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Georgia Southern wins 40% of them, App State 60%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Georgia Southern by 17+10.2%
Georgia Southern by 9–1610.8%
Georgia Southern by 1–817.6%
Level after regulation6.5%
App State by 1–820.7%
App State by 9–1615.4%
App State by 17+18.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.5 points to Georgia Southern: the final margin was Georgia Southern by 19, without the luck Georgia Southern by 12.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • D. De Freitas, 46 yds missed · 63% expected
  • T. Bryant, 23 yds made · 93% expected
  • T. Bryant, 36 yds made · 79% expected
  • D. De Freitas, 27 yds made · 90% expected
  • T. Bryant, 27 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Georgia Southern 4 for 40 yards, App State 4 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:23 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 15 yards +2% APP +1.6 pts
Q1 8:23 Offside on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% GASO +2.3 pts
Q1 3:28 False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GASO +0.4 pts
Q2 0:26 Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards +2% GASO +1.1 pts
Q3 4:45 False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% GASO +1.0 pts
Q4 13:24 Illegal Formation on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% APP +2.0 pts
Q4 10:23 Pass Interference on App State, 15 yards 0% GASO +1.5 pts
Q4 2:32 Personal Foul on Georgia Southern, 15 yards 0% APP +2.7 pts

When it happened

App State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while App State was ahead in it, below while Georgia Southern was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 App State was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +2% GASO APP: Punt
2 Q1 13:37 Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +2% GASO GASO: End of half
3 Q1 8:23 App State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Georgia Southern, 15 yardsJudgment callsOffside on Georgia Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +3% GASO APP: Missed field goal
4 Q2 12:22 Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +2% APP GASO: Field goal
5 Q2 12:14 Georgia Southern converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +3% GASO GASO: Field goal
6 Q2 9:05 Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +2% APP GASO: Field goal
7 Q2 2:08 App State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% APP APP: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:26 Pass Interference on App State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +2% GASO GASO: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Georgia Southern 98% · App State 2%

Final margin
Georgia Southern by 19
Luck in points
6.5 for Georgia Southern
Luck-adjusted margin
Georgia Southern by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Georgia Southern 40% · App State 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Bowl games 2025 games · Georgia Southern · App State

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