Sun Belt · 2026 season, in progress
App State Mountaineers: luck and expected wins
App State is 3–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck added 0.3: the 41st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 2–0.
2026, game by game
How often App State wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Maine | W 55–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ East Carolina | W 27–24 | 36% | +65 |
| Week 3 | vs Charlotte | W 26–21 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 4 | @ NC State | L 31–41 | 47% | −47 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | App State win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Old Dominion |  App State by 4.7 | 61% |
| Week 7 · Oct 16 | at Coastal Carolina | App State by 2.5 | 56% |
| Week 8 · Oct 22 | vs James Madison |  James Madison by 13.3 | 21% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Georgia Southern |  Georgia Southern by 0.9 | 48% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Georgia State | App State by 2.8 | 57% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at Marshall | App State by 2.9 | 57% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs UL Monroe | App State by 21.6 | 90% |
| Week 13 · Nov 27 | at South Alabama |  South Alabama by 2.0 | 45% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in App State’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.14 | −1.0 |
| Kicks | +0.09 | +5.1 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.07 | −4.0 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.06 | −2.7 |
Luckiest wins
Wins App State takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 13 | vs Marshall | W 26–24 | 13% | +87 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Oregon State | W 27–23 | 20% | +80 |
| 2026 Week 2 | @ East Carolina | W 27–24 | 36% | +65 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs Charlotte | W 26–21 | 83% | +17 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Lindenwood | W 20–13 | 97% | +3 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses App State would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Arkansas State | L 29–30 | 68% | −68 |
| 2025 JLab Birmingham Bowl | vs Georgia Southern | L 10–29 | 60% | −60 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ NC State | L 31–41 | 47% | −47 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Old Dominion | L 21–24 | 44% | −44 |
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Coastal Carolina | L 37–45 | 21% | −21 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 5–7 | 4.9 | +0.1 | 3–4 | 0–1 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Charlotte | W 34–11 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs Lindenwood | W 20–13 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 3 | @ Southern Miss | L 22–38 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 5 | @ Boise State | L 14–47 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 6 | vs Oregon State | W 27–23 | 20% | +80 |
| Week 7 | @ Georgia State | W 41–20 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 8 | vs Coastal Carolina | L 37–45 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 9 | @ Old Dominion | L 21–24 | 44% | −44 |
| Week 11 | vs Georgia Southern | L 23–25 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 12 | @ James Madison | L 10–58 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 13 | vs Marshall | W 26–24 | 13% | +87 |
| Week 14 | vs Arkansas State | L 29–30 | 68% | −68 |
| JLab Birmingham Bowl | vs Georgia Southern | L 10–29 | 60% | −60 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Sun Belt teams by luck
- Sun Belt:
Arkansas State, 
Coastal Carolina, Georgia Southern, 
Georgia State, James Madison, 
Louisiana, 
Louisiana Tech, 
Marshall, 
Old Dominion, South Alabama, 
Southern Miss, 
Troy, 
UL Monroe
How many wins does App State have in 2026?
3–1 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.7 wins.
Was App State lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: +0.3 wins of luck, the 41st-luckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was App State’s luckiest season?
2026: 3–1 from play worth 2.7 wins, +0.3 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 5–7 from play worth 4.9 (+0.1).