luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026

Maine at App State, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

App State beat Maine 55–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, App State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff App State was a 91% favorite.

Final

Maine Black Bears 3
App State Mountaineers 55

September 5, 2026 · Kidd Brewer Stadium · Closing line: App State −21

Luck index 0 App State about even · 0 Maine

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Maine wins 0, App State wins 10.

  1. 1 ME 27 APP 48
  2. 2 ME 13 APP 42
  3. 3 ME 0 APP 35
  4. 4 ME 6 APP 45
  5. 5 ME 7 APP 49
  6. 6 ME 7 APP 52
  7. 7 ME 17 APP 66
  8. 8 ME 0 APP 52
  9. 9 ME 10 APP 66
  10. 10 ME 6 APP 66

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Maine wins 0% of them, App State 100%. The line is what actually happened: App State by 52.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Maine by 17+0.0%
Maine by 9–160.0%
Maine by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
App State by 1–80.4%
App State by 9–161.6%
App State by 17+97.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.7 points to Maine: the final margin was App State by 52, without the luck App State by 58.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. London, 31 yds made · 85% expected
  • S. Tremblay, 40 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. London, 32 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Maine 4 for 41 yards, App State 4 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:31 Pass Interference on Maine, 15 yards 0% APP +0.8 pts
Q1 4:36 Holding on App State, 10 yards 0% ME +0.6 pts
Q1 0:22 False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ME +0.8 pts
Q1 0:05 False Start on App State, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ME 0.0 pts
Q3 3:27 Holding on Maine, 10 yards 0% APP +0.6 pts
Q3 1:44 Intentional Grounding on Maine, 11 yards 0% APP +0.7 pts
Q3 0:38 Holding on App State, 10 yards 0% ME +0.6 pts
Q4 11:56 False Start on Maine, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% APP +0.5 pts

When it happened

App State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while App State was ahead in it, below while Maine was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:31 Pass Interference on Maine, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% APP APP: Turnover
2 Q1 11:58 App State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +0% ME APP: Turnover
3 Q1 11:26 App State converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +1% APP APP: Turnover
4 Q1 4:48 Maine was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +0% APP ME: Punt
5 Q1 2:20 App State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +0% APP APP: Field goal
6 Q1 0:22 False Start on App State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +0% ME ME: Punt
7 Q2 14:47 App State was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +0% ME APP: Field goal
8 Q2 12:47 Maine was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +1% APP ME: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Maine 0% · App State 100%

Final margin
App State by 52
Luck in points
6.7 for Maine
Luck-adjusted margin
App State by 58.7
Replay with same day's form
Maine 0% · App State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Maine · App State

More from Week 1 2026

Every week 1 game, 2026