Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
New Hampshire at Syracuse, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Syracuse beat New Hampshire 66–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Syracuse wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Syracuse was a 99% favorite.
Final
 New Hampshire Wildcats | 3 |
|---|---|
 Syracuse Orange | 66 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Syracuse about even · 0 New Hampshire
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Hampshire wins 0, Syracuse wins 10.
- 1 UNH 19 SYR 65
- 2 UNH 0 SYR 55
- 3 UNH 7 SYR 66
- 4 UNH 10 SYR 73
- 5 UNH 0 SYR 66
- 6 UNH 3 SYR 72
- 7 UNH 0 SYR 72
- 8 UNH 0 SYR 76
- 9 UNH 0 SYR 80
- 10 UNH 0 SYR 85
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Hampshire wins 0% of them, Syracuse 100%. The line is what actually happened: Syracuse by 63.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Hampshire by 17+ | 0.0% |
| New Hampshire by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| New Hampshire by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.0% |
| Syracuse by 1–8 | 1.6% |
| Syracuse by 9–16 | 5.2% |
| Syracuse by 17+ | 93.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Glassburn, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
- L. Glassburn, 46 yds made · 60% expected
- T. Woody, 34 yds made · 83% expected
- Extra point missed · 98% expected
Penalties: New Hampshire 9 for 67 yards, Syracuse 11 for 116 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:10 | False Start on New Hampshire, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +1.9 pts |
| Q1 8:18 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% UNH +0.6 pts |
| Q1 4:32 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% UNH +1.4 pts |
| Q1 4:27 | Delay of Game on New Hampshire, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +1.7 pts |
| Q1 4:20 | Holding on New Hampshire, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% SYR +2.5 pts |
| Q1 1:49 | Personal Foul on New Hampshire, 2 yards | 0% SYR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 12:13 | Intentional Grounding on Syracuse, 6 yards | 0% UNH +0.4 pts |
| Q2 9:57 | Delay of Game on Syracuse, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% UNH +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:38 | Pass Interference on New Hampshire, 12 yards | 0% SYR +2.1 pts |
| Q2 7:32 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% UNH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 7:06 | Pass Interference on New Hampshire, 15 yards | 0% SYR +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:38 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% UNH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:38 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% UNH +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:06 | Offside on New Hampshire, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +0.2 pts |
| Q2 0:45 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% UNH +1.6 pts |
| Q3 14:56 | Personal Foul on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% UNH +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:44 | False Start on New Hampshire, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% SYR +2.7 pts |
| Q3 12:21 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yards | 0% UNH +1.0 pts |
| Q3 1:44 | Targeting on Syracuse, 15 yards | 0% UNH +1.6 pts |
| Q4 11:47 | Holding on New Hampshire, 8 yards | 0% SYR +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Syracuse’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:27 | Syracuse converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +0% SYR | SYR: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 11:03 | Syracuse was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +0% UNH | SYR: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:42 | New Hampshire converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% UNH | UNH: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 8:54 | New Hampshire was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expected | +0% SYR | UNH: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 8:18 | Holding on Syracuse, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UNH | UNH: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 4:32 | Pass Interference on Syracuse, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +0% UNH | UNH: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 4:27 | Delay of Game on New Hampshire, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q1 4:20 | Holding on New Hampshire, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +0% SYR | SYR: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Hampshire 0% · Syracuse 100%
- Final margin
- Syracuse by 63
- Luck in points
- 8.2 for Syracuse
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Syracuse by 54.8
- Replay with same day's form
- New Hampshire 0% · Syracuse 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
New Hampshire · 
Syracuse
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