luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 6, 2026

Louisville vs Ole Miss, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Ole Miss beat Louisville 41–38, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Ole Miss wins 6 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Ole Miss.

Before kickoff Ole Miss was a 66% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:42 left): Ole Miss converted 3rd & 6, worth 13 points of win probability to Ole Miss.

Final

Louisville Cardinals 38
Ole Miss Rebels 41

September 6, 2026 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Ole Miss −6.5

Luck index +43 Ole Miss lucky · −43 Louisville

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Louisville wins 4, Ole Miss wins 6.

  1. 1 LOU 42 MISS 16
  2. 2 LOU 47 MISS 31
  3. 3 LOU 31 MISS 22
  4. 4 LOU 31 MISS 28
  5. 5 LOU 24 MISS 27
  6. 6 LOU 23 MISS 30
  7. 7 LOU 31 MISS 42
  8. 8 LOU 21 MISS 37
  9. 9 LOU 13 MISS 35
  10. 10 LOU 13 MISS 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Louisville wins 43% of them, Ole Miss 57%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ole Miss by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Louisville by 17+14.7%
Louisville by 9–1612.8%
Louisville by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation3.7%
Ole Miss by 1–817.1%
Ole Miss by 9–1614.8%
Ole Miss by 17+21.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.6 points to Louisville: the final margin was Ole Miss by 3, without the luck Ole Miss by 4.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • C. Hilbert, 25 yds made · 91% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 43 yds made · 61% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 46 yds missed · 56% expected
  • C. Hilbert, 46 yds made · 61% expected
  • C. Hilbert, 45 yds made · 63% expected
  • L. Carneiro, 48 yds made · 52% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Louisville 7 for 52 yards, Ole Miss 4 for 50 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:44 Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MISS +1.0 pts
Q1 12:44 Delay of Game on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.5 pts
Q1 4:27 Pass Interference on Ole Miss, 15 yards +2% LOU +1.0 pts
Q2 10:38 False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.7 pts
Q3 8:47 Illegal Block on Louisville, 7 yards +1% MISS +0.4 pts
Q3 6:34 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +5% LOU +1.8 pts
Q3 6:34 Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards +1% MISS +0.3 pts
Q3 2:22 Holding on Ole Miss, 10 yards +4% LOU +1.3 pts
Q4 12:45 Holding on Louisville, 10 yards +3% MISS +1.2 pts
Q4 12:45 False Start on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MISS +0.4 pts
Q4 10:34 Face Mask on Ole Miss, 15 yards +3% LOU +1.8 pts

When it happened

Ole Miss’s chance of winning

As low as 43% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Ole Miss was ahead in it, below while Louisville was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 15:00 Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 15% expectedOle Miss fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% MISS MISS: Punt
2 Q1 12:44 Louisville converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedLouisville was stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 18% expectedDelay of Game on Louisville, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsDelay of Game on Louisville, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +4% MISS LOU: End of half
3 Q2 1:43 L. Carneiro missed a 46-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before +4% LOU MISS: End of half
4 Q3 6:34 Ole Miss was stopped on 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedHolding on Ole Miss, 10 yardsJudgment callsPersonal Foul on Louisville, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% LOU MISS: Punt
5 Q3 4:47 Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +3% MISS LOU: Field goal
6 Q3 2:22 C. Hilbert made a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 1 of 1 from 45+ beforeHolding on Ole Miss, 10 yardsJudgment calls +4% MISS LOU: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:16 Louisville’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% LOU LOU: Punt
8 Q4 0:42 Ole Miss converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +13% MISS MISS: Field goal

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Louisville 25% · Ole Miss 75%

Final margin
Ole Miss by 3
Luck in points
1.6 for Louisville
Luck-adjusted margin
Ole Miss by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Louisville 43% · Ole Miss 57% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Louisville · Ole Miss

More from Week 1 2026

Every week 1 game, 2026