ACC · 2026 season, in progress
Louisville Cardinals: luck and expected wins
Louisville is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck cost 0.7: the 20th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–2.
2026, game by game
How often Louisville wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Ole Miss | L 38–41 | 43% | −43 |
| Week 2 | vs Villanova | W 59–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | vs SMU | W 41–31 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 4 | vs Wake Forest | L 27–30 | 62% | −62 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Louisville win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at NC State |  Louisville by 2.1 | 55% |
| Week 6 · Oct 9 | vs Florida State | Louisville by 8.9 | 71% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | at Syracuse | Louisville by 8.6 | 70% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | vs Stanford | Louisville by 20.0 | 89% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | at Georgia Tech | Louisville by 6.2 | 64% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | at North Carolina | Louisville by 5.8 | 63% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Pittsburgh | Louisville by 0.4 | 51% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Kentucky |  Kentucky by 2.7 | 44% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Louisville’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.18 | +14.0 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.07 | +8.3 |
| Pre-snap flags | −0.15 | +1.5 |
| Kicks | −0.37 | −4.3 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Louisville takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 5 | @ Pittsburgh | W 34–27 | 11% | +89 |
| 2025 Week 8 | @ Miami | W 24–21 | 24% | +76 |
| 2026 Week 3 | vs SMU | W 41–31 | 69% | +31 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs James Madison | W 28–14 | 77% | +23 |
| 2025 Bush's Boca Raton Bowl | vs Toledo | W 27–22 | 81% | +19 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Louisville would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 12 | vs Clemson | L 19–20 | 81% | −81 |
| 2025 Week 6 | vs Virginia | L 27–30 | 81% | −81 |
| 2026 Week 4 | vs Wake Forest | L 27–30 | 62% | −62 |
| 2026 Week 1 | vs Ole Miss | L 38–41 | 43% | −43 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs California | L 26–29 | 26% | −26 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 2–3 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eastern Kentucky | W 51–17 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | vs James Madison | W 28–14 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 4 | vs Bowling Green | W 40–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 5 | @ Pittsburgh | W 34–27 | 11% | +89 |
| Week 6 | vs Virginia | L 27–30 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 8 | @ Miami | W 24–21 | 24% | +76 |
| Week 9 | vs Boston College | W 38–24 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 10 | @ Virginia Tech | W 28–16 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 11 | vs California | L 26–29 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 12 | vs Clemson | L 19–20 | 81% | −81 |
| Week 13 | @ SMU | L 6–38 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 14 | vs Kentucky | W 41–0 | 98% | +2 |
| Bush's Boca Raton Bowl | vs Toledo | W 27–22 | 81% | +19 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- ACC teams by luck
- ACC:
Boston College, 
California, 
Clemson, 
Duke, 
Florida State, 
Georgia Tech, 
Miami, 
NC State, 
North Carolina, 
Pittsburgh, 
SMU, 
Stanford, 
Syracuse, 
Virginia, 
Virginia Tech, 
Wake Forest
How many wins does Louisville have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.7 wins.
Was Louisville lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.7 wins of luck, the 20th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Louisville’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 7.9 wins, +0.1 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 2–2 from play worth 2.7 (−0.7).