Week 8 2025 · October 17, 2025
Louisville at Miami, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisville beat Miami 24–21, but the replays lean toward Miami: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Louisville.
Before kickoff Miami was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:00 left): Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 21 points of win probability to Louisville.
Final
 Louisville Cardinals | 24 |
|---|---|
 Miami Hurricanes | 21 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Louisville very lucky · −76 Miami
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Louisville wins 2, Miami wins 8.
- 1 LOU 35 MIA 19
- 2 LOU 24 MIA 20
- 3 LOU 14 MIA 16
- 4 LOU 28 MIA 34
- 5 LOU 17 MIA 26
- 6 LOU 10 MIA 23
- 7 LOU 17 MIA 33
- 8 LOU 17 MIA 37
- 9 LOU 17 MIA 41
- 10 LOU 10 MIA 42
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Louisville wins 24% of them, Miami 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Louisville by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Louisville by 17+ | 4.5% |
| Louisville by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Louisville by 1–8 | 10.7% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Miami by 1–8 | 21.8% |
| Miami by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Miami by 17+ | 34.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Davis, 27 yds made · 91% expected
- C. Ranvier, 48 yds made · 59% expected
- C. Davis, 41 yds made · 72% expected
Penalties: Louisville 6 for 64 yards, Miami 8 for 62 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on Miami, 15 yards | +7% LOU +3.1 pts |
| Q2 14:34 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Miami, 3 yards | +2% LOU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:01 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 6:39 | Personal Foul on Louisville, 15 yards | +2% MIA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 4:51 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +2% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 14:55 | Holding on Miami, 9 yards | +2% LOU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:30 | Illegal Substitution on Louisville, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:08 | Holding on Louisville, 10 yards | +4% MIA +1.4 pts |
| Q3 4:13 | Roughing the Passer on Louisville, 15 yards | +5% MIA +1.6 pts |
| Q3 2:21 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% LOU +0.8 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Illegal Snap on Louisville, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MIA +0.6 pts |
| Q4 9:47 | Holding on Miami, 10 yards | +8% LOU +2.5 pts |
| Q4 9:16 | Roughing the Passer on Louisville, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +14% MIA +5.9 pts |
| Q4 3:36 | False Start on Miami, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LOU +0.3 pts |
When it happened
Miami’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 8:28 | Unnecessary Roughness on Miami, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 1:30 | Louisville converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +11% LOU | LOU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 9:47 | Holding on Miami, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +8% LOU | LOU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 9:16 | Roughing the Passer on Louisville, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 7:42 | Louisville fumbled and Miami recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% MIA | LOU: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 4:13 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +6% MIA | LOU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:20 | Miami converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +12% MIA | MIA: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:00 | Louisville was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +21% LOU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Louisville 74% · Miami 26%
- Final margin
- Louisville by 3
- Luck in points
- 0.8 for Miami
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisville by 3.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Louisville 24% · Miami 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Louisville · 
Miami
More from Week 8 2025
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Florida State at Stanford STAN 20–13 · replay 54% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Duke GT 27–18 · replay 62% for the winner
- SMU at Clemson SMU 35–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- North Carolina at California CAL 21–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Boston College CONN 38–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner