Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025
Florida State at Stanford, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Stanford beat Florida State 20–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Stanford wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 19 points of win probability to Stanford.
An off day for Florida State: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 83% of the time; with this day’s form, 46%. The numbers
Before kickoff Florida State was an 87% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:21 left): J. Weinberg made a 33-yard field goal, worth 13 points of win probability to Stanford.
Final
 Florida State Seminoles | 13 |
|---|---|
 Stanford Cardinal | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +46 Stanford lucky · −46 Florida State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida State wins 5, Stanford wins 5.
- 1 FSU 56 STAN 30
- 2 FSU 24 STAN 7
- 3 FSU 36 STAN 24
- 4 FSU 24 STAN 17
- 5 FSU 16 STAN 13
- 6 FSU 29 STAN 31
- 7 FSU 14 STAN 20
- 8 FSU 35 STAN 45
- 9 FSU 7 STAN 21
- 10 FSU 9 STAN 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for Florida State
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Stanford it would win 83% of the time; with this day’s form, 46%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
36 points apart for Florida State: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida State offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.07 | worse by 0.11 |
| Florida State defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.13 | better by 0.18 |
| Stanford offenseEPA per play gained | −0.05 | +0.01 | worse by 0.06 |
| Stanford defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.05 | +0.11 | better by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida State wins 46% of them, Stanford 54%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Stanford by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida State by 17+ | 11.3% |
| Florida State by 9–16 | 14.0% |
| Florida State by 1–8 | 20.5% |
| Level after regulation | 1.6% |
| Stanford by 1–8 | 22.7% |
| Stanford by 9–16 | 16.4% |
| Stanford by 17+ | 13.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- E. Kenney, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Weinberg, 57 yds missed · 43% expected
- J. Weinberg, 39 yds made · 74% expected
- E. Kenney, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Weinberg, 33 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Florida State 12 for 77 yards, Stanford 4 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Delay of Game on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 11:13 | Illegal Block on Stanford, 10 yards | +1% FSU +1.3 pts |
| Q1 4:31 | Delay of Game on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% STAN +1.9 pts |
| Q2 10:35 | Offside on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% STAN +3.1 pts |
| Q2 5:43 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q2 4:12 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 15 yards | +5% STAN +1.7 pts |
| Q3 14:00 | Holding on Stanford, 10 yards | +5% FSU +2.1 pts |
| Q3 10:22 | Illegal Forward Pass on Florida State, 5 yards | +4% STAN +1.6 pts |
| Q3 5:13 | Roughing the Passer on Florida State, 15 yards | +3% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:06 | Pass Interference on Florida State, 2 yards | +2% STAN +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:18 | Offside on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +8% STAN +2.3 pts |
| Q4 2:23 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% STAN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:49 | Intentional Grounding on Florida State, 0 yards | +3% STAN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 1:13 | Delay of Game on Stanford, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FSU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:41 | False Start on Florida State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% STAN +0.3 pts |
| Q4 0:02 | Pass Interference on Stanford, 7 yards | 0% FSU +3.6 pts |
When it happened
Stanford’s chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 5:47 | Stanford converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +9% STAN | STAN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 14:18 | Offside on Florida State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 12:10 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +7% STAN | FSU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 9:21 | J. Weinberg made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 83% expected for him | +13% STAN | FSU: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 5:27 | Florida State was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +10% STAN | FSU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 5:21 | Florida State was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +12% STAN | FSU: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 2:23 | Holding on Florida State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% STAN | STAN: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:06 | Florida State converted 3rd & 223rd & 4th downs · 18% expected | +12% FSU | FSU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida State 66% · Stanford 34%
- Final margin
- Stanford by 7
- Luck in points
- 10.4 for Stanford
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida State by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida State 46% · Stanford 54% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Florida State · 
Stanford
More from Week 8 2025
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at Duke GT 27–18 · replay 62% for the winner
- SMU at Clemson SMU 35–24 · replay 65% for the winner
- North Carolina at California CAL 21–18 · replay 71% for the winner
- UConn at Boston College CONN 38–23 · replay 72% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner