luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

2025 college football season · October 14, 2025–October 18, 2025

Week 8 2025: upsets, and who deserved to win

17 upsets in Week 8 2025. The biggest: UAB beat Memphis 31–24 as 6% underdogs, and deserved it. 8 of 60 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: Florida International beat Western Kentucky 25–6 in a game it wins 33% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

Week 8 2025 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 11 of 17 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form (our postgame win expectancy).

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
UAB 31–24 vs Memphis 6% 64% Deserved
Stanford 20–13 vs Florida State 13% 54% Coin flip
Louisville 24–21 @ Miami 25% 24% Lucky
Coastal Carolina 45–37 @ App State 25% 79% Deserved
Florida International 25–6 @ Western Kentucky 26% 33% Lucky
Arkansas State 15–14 @ South Alabama 29% 66% Deserved
Arizona State 26–22 vs Texas Tech 31% 38% Lucky
Minnesota 24–6 vs Nebraska 33% 91% Deserved
BYU 24–21 vs Utah 40% 43% Coin flip
Georgia Tech 27–18 @ Duke 41% 62% Deserved
SMU 35–24 @ Clemson 41% 65% Deserved
Jacksonville State 38–25 vs Delaware 42% 79% Deserved
Marshall 40–37 vs Texas State 42% 71% Deserved
Central Michigan 27–6 @ Bowling Green 42% 70% Deserved
Ball State 42–28 vs Akron 44% 51% Coin flip
Hawai'i 31–19 @ Colorado State 44% 94% Deserved
Houston 31–28 vs Arizona 46% 80% Deserved

Every game, luck first

The games luck decided most come first. The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 8 luck ranking

Every FBS team’s luck index: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Texas W 16–13 @ Kentucky 7% +93
2 Air Force W 24–21 vs Wyoming 13% +87
3 Louisville W 24–21 @ Miami 24% +76
4 Virginia W 22–20 vs Washington State 29% +71
5 Missouri W 23–17 @ Auburn 32% +68
6 Florida International W 25–6 @ Western Kentucky 33% +67
7 Southern Miss W 22–10 @ Louisiana 34% +66
8 Arizona State W 26–22 vs Texas Tech 38% +62
9 Liberty W 30–27 vs New Mexico State 42% +58
10 Pittsburgh W 30–13 @ Syracuse 43% +57
11 Buffalo W 28–21 @ Massachusetts 43% +57
12 BYU W 24–21 vs Utah 43% +57
13 Ball State W 42–28 vs Akron 51% +49
14 Stanford W 20–13 vs Florida State 54% +46
15 New Mexico W 24–22 vs Nevada 58% +42
16 Troy W 37–14 @ UL Monroe 58% +42
17 Georgia Tech W 27–18 @ Duke 62% +38
18 Georgia Southern W 41–24 vs Georgia State 63% +37
19 UAB W 31–24 vs Memphis 64% +36
20 SMU W 35–24 @ Clemson 65% +35
21 Arkansas State W 15–14 @ South Alabama 66% +34
22 Central Michigan W 27–6 @ Bowling Green 70% +30
23 California W 21–18 vs North Carolina 71% +29
24 Utah State W 30–25 vs San José State 71% +29
25 Marshall W 40–37 vs Texas State 71% +29
26 UConn W 38–23 @ Boston College 72% +28
27 Notre Dame W 34–24 vs USC 73% +27
28 Vanderbilt W 31–24 vs LSU 75% +25
29 Alabama W 37–20 vs Tennessee 75% +25
30 Northwestern W 19–0 vs Purdue 77% +23
31 Cincinnati W 49–17 @ Oklahoma State 77% +23
32 Texas A&M W 45–42 @ Arkansas 78% +22
33 Jacksonville State W 38–25 vs Delaware 79% +21
34 Coastal Carolina W 45–37 @ App State 79% +21
35 Houston W 31–28 vs Arizona 80% +20
36 UCLA W 20–17 vs Maryland 82% +18
37 Oklahoma W 26–7 @ South Carolina 83% +18
38 Florida W 23–21 vs Mississippi State 85% +15
39 Georgia W 43–35 vs Ole Miss 87% +13
40 Miami (OH) W 44–30 vs Eastern Michigan 88% +12
41 Michigan W 24–7 vs Washington 90% +10
42 James Madison W 63–27 vs Old Dominion 90% +10
43 Minnesota W 24–6 vs Nebraska 91% +9
44 Tulane W 24–17 vs Army 92% +8
45 TCU W 42–36 vs Baylor 93% +7
46 Hawai'i W 31–19 @ Colorado State 94% +6
47 North Texas W 55–17 vs UTSA 94% +6
48 East Carolina W 41–27 vs Tulsa 94% +6
49 UTEP W 35–17 vs Sam Houston 94% +6
50 Iowa W 25–24 vs Penn State 95% +5
51 Boise State W 56–31 vs UNLV 95% +5
52 Temple W 49–14 @ Charlotte 96% +4
53 Ohio W 48–21 vs Northern Illinois 97% +3
54 South Florida W 48–13 vs Florida Atlantic 98% +2
55 Toledo W 45–10 vs Kent State 99% +1
56 Ohio State W 34–0 @ Wisconsin 99% +1
57 Oregon State W 45–13 vs Lafayette 100% 0
58 Oregon W 56–10 @ Rutgers 100% 0
59 Indiana W 38–13 vs Michigan State 100% 0
60 UCF W 45–13 vs West Virginia 100% 0
61 West Virginia L 13–45 @ UCF 0% 0
62 Michigan State L 13–38 @ Indiana 0% 0
63 Rutgers L 10–56 vs Oregon 0% 0
64 Wisconsin L 0–34 vs Ohio State 1% −1
65 Kent State L 10–45 @ Toledo 1% −1
66 Florida Atlantic L 13–48 @ South Florida 2% −2
67 Northern Illinois L 21–48 @ Ohio 3% −3
68 Charlotte L 14–49 vs Temple 4% −4
69 UNLV L 31–56 @ Boise State 5% −5
70 Penn State L 24–25 @ Iowa 5% −5
71 Sam Houston L 17–35 vs UTEP 6% −6
72 Tulsa L 27–41 @ East Carolina 6% −6
73 UTSA L 17–55 @ North Texas 6% −6
74 Colorado State L 19–31 vs Hawai'i 6% −6
75 Baylor L 36–42 @ TCU 7% −7
76 Army L 17–24 @ Tulane 8% −8
77 Nebraska L 6–24 @ Minnesota 9% −9
78 Old Dominion L 27–63 @ James Madison 10% −10
79 Washington L 7–24 @ Michigan 10% −10
80 Eastern Michigan L 30–44 @ Miami (OH) 12% −12
81 Ole Miss L 35–43 @ Georgia 13% −13
82 Mississippi State L 21–23 @ Florida 15% −15
83 South Carolina L 7–26 vs Oklahoma 18% −18
84 Maryland L 17–20 @ UCLA 18% −18
85 Arizona L 28–31 @ Houston 20% −20
86 App State L 37–45 vs Coastal Carolina 21% −21
87 Delaware L 25–38 @ Jacksonville State 21% −21
88 Arkansas L 42–45 vs Texas A&M 22% −22
89 Oklahoma State L 17–49 vs Cincinnati 23% −23
90 Purdue L 0–19 @ Northwestern 23% −23
91 Tennessee L 20–37 @ Alabama 25% −25
92 LSU L 24–31 @ Vanderbilt 25% −25
93 USC L 24–34 @ Notre Dame 27% −27
94 Boston College L 23–38 vs UConn 28% −28
95 Texas State L 37–40 @ Marshall 29% −29
96 San José State L 25–30 @ Utah State 29% −29
97 North Carolina L 18–21 @ California 29% −29
98 Bowling Green L 6–27 vs Central Michigan 30% −30
99 South Alabama L 14–15 vs Arkansas State 34% −34
100 Clemson L 24–35 vs SMU 35% −35
101 Memphis L 24–31 @ UAB 36% −36
102 Georgia State L 24–41 @ Georgia Southern 37% −37
103 Duke L 18–27 vs Georgia Tech 38% −38
104 UL Monroe L 14–37 vs Troy 42% −42
105 Nevada L 22–24 @ New Mexico 42% −42
106 Florida State L 13–20 @ Stanford 46% −46
107 Akron L 28–42 @ Ball State 49% −49
108 Utah L 21–24 @ BYU 57% −57
109 Massachusetts L 21–28 vs Buffalo 57% −57
110 Syracuse L 13–30 vs Pittsburgh 57% −57
111 New Mexico State L 27–30 @ Liberty 58% −58
112 Texas Tech L 22–26 @ Arizona State 62% −62
113 Louisiana L 10–22 vs Southern Miss 66% −66
114 Western Kentucky L 6–25 vs Florida International 67% −67
115 Auburn L 17–23 vs Missouri 68% −68
116 Washington State L 20–22 @ Virginia 71% −71
117 Miami L 21–24 vs Louisville 76% −76
118 Wyoming L 21–24 @ Air Force 87% −87
119 Kentucky L 13–16 vs Texas 93% −93