luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 8 2025 · October 18, 2025

Lafayette at Oregon State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?

Oregon State beat Lafayette 45–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Oregon State wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Oregon State was a 91% favorite.

Final

Lafayette Leopards 13
Oregon State Beavers 45

October 18, 2025 · Reser Stadium · Closing line: Oregon State −21

Luck index 0 Oregon State about even · 0 Lafayette

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Lafayette wins 0, Oregon State wins 10.

  1. 1 LAF 31 ORST 41
  2. 2 LAF 10 ORST 31
  3. 3 LAF 14 ORST 41
  4. 4 LAF 14 ORST 45
  5. 5 LAF 17 ORST 52
  6. 6 LAF 7 ORST 45
  7. 7 LAF 10 ORST 52
  8. 8 LAF 13 ORST 59
  9. 9 LAF 0 ORST 52
  10. 10 LAF 10 ORST 70

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Lafayette wins 0% of them, Oregon State 100%. The line is what actually happened: Oregon State by 32.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Lafayette by 17+0.0%
Lafayette by 9–160.1%
Lafayette by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Oregon State by 1–81.5%
Oregon State by 9–164.3%
Oregon State by 17+93.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to Lafayette: the final margin was Oregon State by 32, without the luck Oregon State by 35.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • J. Simonetta, 28 yds made · 84% expected
  • C. Ojeda, 40 yds made · 70% expected
  • J. Simonetta, 37 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Lafayette 8 for 50 yards, Oregon State 5 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:36 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% LAF +4.0 pts
Q1 7:36 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 13 yards +1% LAF +0.4 pts
Q1 7:26 Illegal Snap on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORST +0.4 pts
Q1 5:45 Delay of Game on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORST 0.0 pts
Q1 0:54 Illegal Formation on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% ORST +1.2 pts
Q2 3:53 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards +1% LAF +1.0 pts
Q2 3:53 False Start on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORST +0.5 pts
Q2 0:17 Pass Interference on Oregon State, 15 yards +1% LAF +0.5 pts
Q3 13:55 Illegal Formation on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% ORST +0.9 pts
Q3 3:38 Delay of Game on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORST +0.8 pts
Q3 2:28 Horse Collar Tackle on Lafayette, 15 yards 0% ORST 0.0 pts
Q4 12:37 False Start on Lafayette, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ORST +0.6 pts
Q4 12:05 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards 0% LAF +1.0 pts

When it happened

Oregon State’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Oregon State was ahead in it, below while Lafayette was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:36 Holding on Oregon State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon State, 13 yardsJudgment calls +5% LAF LAF: Field goal
2 Q2 1:48 Lafayette converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +3% LAF LAF: Field goal
3 Q3 13:58 Lafayette was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +3% ORST LAF: Punt
4 Q3 12:31 Oregon State was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +4% LAF ORST: Punt
5 Q3 12:24 Blocked punt by LafayetteSpecial teams +5% LAF LAF: Turnover on downs
6 Q3 11:29 Lafayette was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% ORST LAF: Turnover on downs
7 Q3 10:53 Lafayette was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% ORST LAF: Punt
8 Q3 7:56 Oregon State converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +3% ORST ORST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Lafayette 0% · Oregon State 100%

Final margin
Oregon State by 32
Luck in points
3.1 for Lafayette
Luck-adjusted margin
Oregon State by 35.1
Replay with same day's form
Lafayette 0% · Oregon State 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · Lafayette · Oregon State

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Every week 8 game, 2025