Week 8 2025 · October 14, 2025
New Mexico State at Liberty, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Liberty beat New Mexico State 30–27, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Liberty wins 4 of 10.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 75% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 12:19 left): New Mexico State converted 3rd & 9, worth 13 points of win probability to New Mexico State.
Final
 New Mexico State Aggies | 27 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +58 Liberty lucky · −58 New Mexico State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 6, Liberty wins 4.
- 1 NMSU 42 LIB 16
- 2 NMSU 45 LIB 27
- 3 NMSU 38 LIB 24
- 4 NMSU 31 LIB 21
- 5 NMSU 30 LIB 24
- 6 NMSU 27 LIB 24
- 7 NMSU 19 LIB 21
- 8 NMSU 31 LIB 37
- 9 NMSU 20 LIB 31
- 10 NMSU 13 LIB 31
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
New Mexico State wins 58% of them, Liberty 42%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| New Mexico State by 17+ | 16.4% |
| New Mexico State by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| New Mexico State by 1–8 | 20.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.5% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 22.2% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 11.8% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 8.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Billingsley, 28 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Hawk, 27 yds made · 90% expected
- R. Hawk, 24 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Billingsley, 43 yds made · 66% expected
- J. Billingsley, 29 yds made · 87% expected
- R. Hawk, 47 yds missed · 60% expected
Penalties: New Mexico State 6 for 58 yards, Liberty 3 for 32 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:04 | Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards | +2% LIB +1.0 pts |
| Q2 8:27 | Running Into the Kicker on Liberty, 5 yards | +2% NMSU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 5:22 | Holding on New Mexico State, 8 yards | +2% LIB +1.7 pts |
| Q2 1:07 | Unnecessary Roughness on New Mexico State, 15 yards | +1% LIB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:33 | Roughing the Passer on New Mexico State, 15 yards | 0% LIB +0.4 pts |
| Q3 11:28 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.5 pts |
| Q3 7:08 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 12 yards, wiping out the play | +8% NMSU +3.9 pts |
| Q3 1:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on Liberty, 15 yards | +5% NMSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 1:29 | False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +0.4 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 7:08 | Personal Foul on Liberty, 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 1:48 | Unnecessary Roughness on Liberty, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% NMSU | NMSU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 14:01 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +9% NMSU | NMSU: End of game |
| 4 | Q4 12:19 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +13% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:57 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +8% NMSU | LIB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 5:38 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +11% NMSU | NMSU: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 3:52 | New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +6% LIB | NMSU: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 0:04 | New Mexico State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +9% NMSU | NMSU: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
New Mexico State 11% · Liberty 89%
- Final margin
- Liberty by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.2 for New Mexico State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 7.2
- Replay with same day's form
- New Mexico State 58% · Liberty 42% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
New Mexico State · 
Liberty
More from Week 8 2025
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- Delaware at Jacksonville State JXST 38–25 · replay 79% for the winner
- UTEP vs Sam Houston UTEP 35–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Buffalo at Massachusetts BUF 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner