Week 8 2025 · October 15, 2025
Delaware at Jacksonville State, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
Jacksonville State beat Delaware 38–25, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Delaware was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:37 left): Return touchdown by Jacksonville State, worth 20 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.
Final
 Delaware Blue Hens | 25 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville State Gamecocks | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Jacksonville State about even · −21 Delaware
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Delaware wins 2, Jacksonville State wins 8.
- 1 DEL 24 JXST 7
- 2 DEL 20 JXST 14
- 3 DEL 31 JXST 34
- 4 DEL 14 JXST 20
- 5 DEL 10 JXST 19
- 6 DEL 17 JXST 30
- 7 DEL 14 JXST 29
- 8 DEL 7 JXST 25
- 9 DEL 10 JXST 34
- 10 DEL 7 JXST 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Delaware wins 21% of them, Jacksonville State 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Delaware by 17+ | 3.3% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 9.9% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Jacksonville State by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| Jacksonville State by 9–16 | 18.8% |
| Jacksonville State by 17+ | 38.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- G. Rippa, 54 yds missed · 47% expected
- G. Rippa, 46 yds missed · 61% expected
- G. Rippa, 52 yds made · 50% expected
Penalties: Delaware 10 for 82 yards, Jacksonville State 5 for 55 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:54 | Ineligible Downfield on Delaware, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +3% JXST +1.4 pts |
| Q1 9:27 | Illegal Substitution on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JXST +0.7 pts |
| Q1 7:28 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | +5% JXST +2.3 pts |
| Q2 10:32 | Holding on Delaware, 9 yards | +1% JXST +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:52 | Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +2% DEL +1.4 pts |
| Q2 2:44 | Penalty on Jacksonville State, 0 yards | +1% DEL +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:45 | Personal Foul on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | +1% DEL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:25 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | +2% JXST +1.4 pts |
| Q3 10:21 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 3 yards | +1% JXST +1.2 pts |
| Q3 6:09 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | 0% JXST +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:41 | Delay of Game on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% JXST +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards | 0% DEL +1.6 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Illegal Block on Delaware, 10 yards | 0% JXST +1.3 pts |
| Q4 3:03 | Pass Interference on Jacksonville State, 15 yards | 0% DEL +0.8 pts |
| Q4 1:37 | Holding on Delaware, 10 yards | 0% JXST +0.7 pts |
When it happened
Jacksonville State’s chance of winning
As low as 39% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:51 | Delaware converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% DEL | DEL: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:07 | Delaware fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% DEL | DEL: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 7:28 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% JXST | JXST: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 4:35 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +3% JXST | DEL: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 12:26 | G. Rippa missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 47% expected for him, 7 of 7 from 45+ before | +4% DEL | JXST: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 11:16 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 69% expected | +5% JXST | DEL: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 10:37 | Delaware fumbled and Jacksonville State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Jacksonville StateSpecial teams | +20% JXST | DEL: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 7:25 | Delaware converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +3% DEL | DEL: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Delaware 3% · Jacksonville State 97%
- Final margin
- Jacksonville State by 13
- Luck in points
- 0.3 for Delaware
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jacksonville State by 13.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Delaware 21% · Jacksonville State 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
Delaware · 
Jacksonville State
More from Week 8 2025
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Liberty LIB 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner
- UTEP vs Sam Houston UTEP 35–17 · replay 94% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Buffalo at Massachusetts BUF 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner