Week 8 2025 · October 15, 2025
UTEP vs Sam Houston, Week 8 2025: who deserved to win?
UTEP beat Sam Houston 35–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, UTEP wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff UTEP was a 59% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:29 left): C. Pavon had a 23-yard field goal blocked, worth 28 points of win probability to UTEP.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 35 |
|---|---|
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +6 UTEP about even · −6 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 9, Sam Houston wins 1.
- 1 UTEP 69 SHSU 16
- 2 UTEP 48 SHSU 7
- 3 UTEP 52 SHSU 17
- 4 UTEP 37 SHSU 8
- 5 UTEP 28 SHSU 4
- 6 UTEP 34 SHSU 14
- 7 UTEP 34 SHSU 17
- 8 UTEP 24 SHSU 13
- 9 UTEP 20 SHSU 15
- 10 UTEP 12 SHSU 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 94% of them, Sam Houston 6%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UTEP by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 74.1% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 11.3% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 8.3% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 3.1% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 1.8% |
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 0.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Pavon, 26 yds made · 87% expected
- T. Cragun, 45 yds blocked · 63% expected
- C. Pavon, 23 yds blocked · 89% expected
Penalties: UTEP 8 for 93 yards, Sam Houston 6 for 65 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:15 | Illegal Substitution on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% SHSU +0.7 pts |
| Q1 9:25 | Intentional Grounding on UTEP, 20 yards | 0% SHSU +1.2 pts |
| Q1 7:23 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:59 | Face Mask on UTEP, 15 yards | +3% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 11:59 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 15 yards | +7% SHSU +3.5 pts |
| Q2 11:59 | Holding on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q2 8:17 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 13 yards | +7% SHSU +3.2 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | Illegal Formation on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UTEP +0.3 pts |
| Q3 12:45 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 6:12 | Illegal Block on Sam Houston, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q4 14:00 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +13% UTEP +3.3 pts |
| Q4 10:37 | Pass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yards | +25% SHSU +6.8 pts |
| Q4 10:37 | False Start on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% SHSU +0.6 pts |
| Q4 5:50 | Unnecessary Roughness on UTEP, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +1.6 pts |
When it happened
Sam Houston’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 63%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 3:59 | Sam Houston was stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +7% UTEP | SHSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 11:59 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedSam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFace Mask on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment callsHolding on Sam Houston, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +6% SHSU | SHSU: End of half |
| 3 | Q2 7:27 | C. Pavon made a 26-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +13% UTEP | SHSU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q2 5:43 | UTEP was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +9% SHSU | UTEP: Turnover |
| 5 | Q2 5:27 | Sam Houston fumbled and UTEP recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +10% UTEP | SHSU: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q3 3:03 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedUTEP was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedUTEP converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +9% SHSU | SHSU: End of half |
| 7 | Q4 10:37 | UTEP converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedPass Interference on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on UTEP, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +17% SHSU | UTEP: End of game |
| 8 | Q4 10:29 | C. Pavon had a 23-yard field goal blockedKicks · 89% expected for him | +28% UTEP | SHSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 100% · Sam Houston 0%
- Final margin
- UTEP by 18
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for UTEP
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UTEP by 15.8
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 94% · Sam Houston 6% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2025 games · 
UTEP · 
Sam Houston
More from Week 8 2025
- Florida International at Western Kentucky FIU 25–6 · replay 33% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Liberty LIB 30–27 · replay 42% for the winner
- Delaware at Jacksonville State JXST 38–25 · replay 79% for the winner
- Texas at Kentucky TEX 16–13 · replay 7% for the winner
- Wyoming at Air Force AF 24–21 · replay 13% for the winner
- Louisville at Miami LOU 24–21 · replay 24% for the winner
- Washington State at Virginia UVA 22–20 · replay 29% for the winner
- Missouri at Auburn MIZ 23–17 · replay 32% for the winner
- Southern Miss at Louisiana USM 22–10 · replay 34% for the winner
- Texas Tech at Arizona State ASU 26–22 · replay 38% for the winner
- Pittsburgh at Syracuse PITT 30–13 · replay 43% for the winner
- Buffalo at Massachusetts BUF 28–21 · replay 43% for the winner