Mountain West · 2026 season, in progress
UTEP Miners: luck and expected wins
UTEP is 1–3 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 1.0 wins. Luck cost 0.0: the 61st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–0.
2026, game by game
How often UTEP wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Oklahoma | L 0–51 | 1% | −1 |
| Week 2 | vs Texas Southern | W 51–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 3 | @ Michigan | L 17–52 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 4 | vs Oregon State | L 7–33 | 0% | 0 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | UTEP win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | at New Mexico |  New Mexico by 28.4 | 4% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | vs Nevada |  Nevada by 7.2 | 33% |
| Week 7 · Oct 17 | vs San José State |  San José State by 4.7 | 39% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at North Dakota State |  North Dakota State by 28.7 | 4% |
| Week 10 · Nov 7 | vs Hawai'i |  Hawai'i by 4.6 | 39% |
| Week 11 · Nov 14 | vs Wyoming |  Wyoming by 2.4 | 44% |
| Week 12 · Nov 20 | at Air Force |  Air Force by 17.9 | 15% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Northern Illinois |  Northern Illinois by 6.8 | 34% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in UTEP’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Pre-snap flags | +0.04 | +7.6 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.06 | −19.1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins UTEP takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 8 | vs Sam Houston | W 35–17 | 94% | +6 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs UT Martin | W 42–17 | 99% | +1 |
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Texas Southern | W 51–10 | 100% | 0 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses UTEP would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 5 | vs Louisiana Tech | L 11–30 | 53% | −53 |
| 2025 Week 13 | vs New Mexico State | L 31–34 | 47% | −47 |
| 2025 Week 11 | vs Jacksonville State | L 27–30 | 35% | −35 |
| 2025 Week 10 | @ Kennesaw State | L 20–33 | 24% | −24 |
| 2025 Week 4 | vs UL Monroe | L 25–31 | 16% | −16 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 2–10 | 4.1 | −2.1 | 0–3 | – |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Utah State | L 16–28 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 2 | vs UT Martin | W 42–17 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 3 | @ Texas | L 10–27 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 4 | vs UL Monroe | L 25–31 | 16% | −16 |
| Week 5 | vs Louisiana Tech | L 11–30 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 7 | vs Liberty | L 8–19 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 8 | vs Sam Houston | W 35–17 | 94% | +6 |
| Week 10 | @ Kennesaw State | L 20–33 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 11 | vs Jacksonville State | L 27–30 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 12 | @ Missouri State | L 24–38 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 13 | vs New Mexico State | L 31–34 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 14 | @ Delaware | L 31–61 | 4% | −4 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Mountain West teams by luck
- Mountain West: Air Force, Hawai'i, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota State, Northern Illinois, San José State,
UNLV, Wyoming
How many wins does UTEP have in 2026?
1–3 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 1.0 wins.
Was UTEP lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Neither: about as lucky as the average team so far: 0.0 wins of luck, the 61st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was UTEP’s luckiest season?
2026: 1–3 from play worth 1.0 wins, 0.0 of luck. The unluckiest: 2025, 2–10 from play worth 4.1 (−2.1).