Week 10 2025 · October 28, 2025
UTEP at Kennesaw State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Kennesaw State beat UTEP 33–20, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Kennesaw State was a 79% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 15:00 left): Roughing the Passer on UTEP, 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 11 points of win probability to Kennesaw State.
Final
 UTEP Miners | 20 |
|---|---|
 Kennesaw State Owls | 33 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Kennesaw State about even · −24 UTEP
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UTEP wins 2, Kennesaw State wins 8.
- 1 UTEP 23 KENN 9
- 2 UTEP 14 KENN 10
- 3 UTEP 17 KENN 19
- 4 UTEP 6 KENN 13
- 5 UTEP 17 KENN 27
- 6 UTEP 7 KENN 20
- 7 UTEP 14 KENN 30
- 8 UTEP 10 KENN 30
- 9 UTEP 3 KENN 26
- 10 UTEP 13 KENN 45
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UTEP wins 24% of them, Kennesaw State 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Kennesaw State by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UTEP by 17+ | 3.1% |
| UTEP by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| UTEP by 1–8 | 11.9% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Kennesaw State by 1–8 | 22.9% |
| Kennesaw State by 9–16 | 18.4% |
| Kennesaw State by 17+ | 35.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- T. Cragun, 38 yds made · 75% expected
- T. Cragun, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- B. Williams, 30 yds made · 85% expected
Penalties: UTEP 7 for 75 yards, Kennesaw State 4 for 49 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:22 | Offside on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% KENN +2.1 pts |
| Q1 1:41 | Delay of Game on UTEP, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 3:21 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +1% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 10:40 | Holding on Kennesaw State, 10 yards | +2% UTEP +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +2% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:08 | Unnecessary Roughness on Kennesaw State, 15 yards | +5% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q3 6:02 | Roughing the Passer on Kennesaw State, 14 yards | 0% UTEP +1.6 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Roughing the Passer on UTEP, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +12% KENN +5.0 pts |
| Q4 11:32 | Holding on UTEP, 10 yards | +2% KENN +0.6 pts |
| Q4 6:32 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on UTEP, 15 yards | +3% KENN +1.6 pts |
| Q4 6:32 | Pass Interference on UTEP, 15 yards | +4% KENN +3.0 pts |
When it happened
Kennesaw State’s chance of winning
As low as 50% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:43 | Return touchdown by Kennesaw StateSpecial teams | +3% KENN | KENN: Punt |
| 2 | Q3 10:45 | UTEP converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% UTEP | UTEP: Field goal |
| 3 | Q3 10:40 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedHolding on Kennesaw State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +4% KENN | KENN: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 2:24 | Kennesaw State converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +7% KENN | KENN: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 2:19 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 213rd & 4th downs · 9% expected | +5% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 15:00 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedRoughing the Passer on UTEP, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +11% KENN | KENN: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 11:32 | UTEP was stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 13% expectedB. Williams made a 30-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for himHolding on UTEP, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +3% UTEP | UTEP: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 6:32 | Kennesaw State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment callsPass Interference on UTEP, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +4% KENN | KENN: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UTEP 8% · Kennesaw State 92%
- Final margin
- Kennesaw State by 13
- Luck in points
- 3.4 for Kennesaw State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Kennesaw State by 9.6
- Replay with same day's form
- UTEP 24% · Kennesaw State 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
UTEP · 
Kennesaw State
More from Week 10 2025
- Florida International at Missouri State MOST 28–21 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee JXST 24–21 · replay 75% for the winner
- Delaware at Liberty LIB 59–30 · replay 99% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech LT 55–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Western Kentucky WKU 35–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner