luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025

New Mexico State at Western Kentucky, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Western Kentucky beat New Mexico State 35–16, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Western Kentucky wins 10 of 10. New Mexico State had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 9 points of win probability to New Mexico State.

Before kickoff Western Kentucky was a 69% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 11:28 left): Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 1, worth 10 points of win probability to New Mexico State.

Final

New Mexico State Aggies 16
Western Kentucky Hilltoppers 35

November 1, 2025 · Houchens Industries-L.T. Smith Stadium · Closing line: Western Kentucky −7.5

Luck index 0 Western Kentucky about even · 0 New Mexico State

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. New Mexico State wins 0, Western Kentucky wins 10.

  1. 1 NMSU 7 WKU 19
  2. 2 NMSU 13 WKU 31
  3. 3 NMSU 0 WKU 23
  4. 4 NMSU 7 WKU 33
  5. 5 NMSU 0 WKU 30
  6. 6 NMSU 3 WKU 35
  7. 7 NMSU 3 WKU 40
  8. 8 NMSU 3 WKU 44
  9. 9 NMSU 0 WKU 44
  10. 10 NMSU 0 WKU 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

New Mexico State wins 0% of them, Western Kentucky 100%. The line is what actually happened: Western Kentucky by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
New Mexico State by 17+0.0%
New Mexico State by 9–160.0%
New Mexico State by 1–80.2%
Level after regulation0.1%
Western Kentucky by 1–81.6%
Western Kentucky by 9–163.5%
Western Kentucky by 17+94.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.6 points to New Mexico State: the final margin was Western Kentucky by 19, without the luck Western Kentucky by 23.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • R. Hawk, 32 yds made · 84% expected
  • R. Hawk, 27 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Cannon, 53 yds missed · 50% expected
  • R. Hawk, 50 yds made · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: New Mexico State 7 for 50 yards, Western Kentucky 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:47 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.6 pts
Q1 5:14 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.7 pts
Q1 1:52 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.4 pts
Q1 0:56 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards +3% NMSU +1.4 pts
Q2 10:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico State, 15 yards +4% WKU +1.8 pts
Q2 9:06 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.5 pts
Q2 8:42 Personal Foul on Western Kentucky, 15 yards +2% NMSU +0.8 pts
Q3 11:36 False Start on New Mexico State, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WKU +0.7 pts
Q4 10:44 Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +1.3 pts
Q4 10:38 Offside on Western Kentucky, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NMSU +0.5 pts
Q4 10:13 Holding on Western Kentucky, 10 yards 0% NMSU +2.1 pts
Q4 10:01 Holding on New Mexico State, 10 yards 0% WKU +1.3 pts

When it happened

Western Kentucky’s chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Western Kentucky was ahead in it, below while New Mexico State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:55 Western Kentucky converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% WKU WKU: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 8:45 Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected +6% NMSU WKU: Punt
3 Q1 7:09 New Mexico State converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expected +6% NMSU NMSU: Punt
4 Q2 11:28 Western Kentucky was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected +10% NMSU WKU: Turnover
5 Q2 10:41 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on New Mexico State, 15 yardsJudgment calls +4% WKU WKU: Turnover
6 Q2 7:20 New Mexico State was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +3% WKU NMSU: Field goal
7 Q3 13:13 Western Kentucky was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 81% expected +4% NMSU WKU: Punt
8 Q3 9:49 R. Hawk made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +3% NMSU NMSU: Turnover

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

New Mexico State 0% · Western Kentucky 100%

Final margin
Western Kentucky by 19
Luck in points
4.6 for New Mexico State
Luck-adjusted margin
Western Kentucky by 23.6
Replay with same day's form
New Mexico State 0% · Western Kentucky 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · New Mexico State · Western Kentucky

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