luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · October 29, 2025

Florida International at Missouri State, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Missouri State beat Florida International 28–21, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Missouri State wins 6 of 10.

Before kickoff Missouri State was a 58% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:11 left): Missouri State converted 3rd & 11, worth 15 points of win probability to Missouri State.

Final

Florida International Panthers 21
Missouri State Bears 28

October 29, 2025 · Plaster Sports Complex · Closing line: Missouri State −3

Luck index +41 Missouri State lucky · −41 Florida International

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Florida International wins 4, Missouri State wins 6.

  1. 1 FIU 26 MOST 3
  2. 2 FIU 38 MOST 24
  3. 3 FIU 34 MOST 27
  4. 4 FIU 20 MOST 17
  5. 5 FIU 14 MOST 16
  6. 6 FIU 24 MOST 29
  7. 7 FIU 26 MOST 34
  8. 8 FIU 7 MOST 19
  9. 9 FIU 18 MOST 33
  10. 10 FIU 5 MOST 32

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Florida International wins 41% of them, Missouri State 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Missouri State by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Florida International by 17+9.7%
Florida International by 9–1612.5%
Florida International by 1–816.1%
Level after regulation3.4%
Missouri State by 1–820.6%
Missouri State by 9–1617.0%
Missouri State by 17+20.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.6 points to Missouri State: the final margin was Missouri State by 7, without the luck Florida International by 4.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Florida International 8 for 75 yards, Missouri State 3 for 36 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:37 Roughing the Passer on Missouri State, 15 yards +3% FIU +1.6 pts
Q1 10:35 Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% FIU +3.2 pts
Q1 10:35 Pass Interference on Florida International, 15 yards +4% MOST +2.3 pts
Q1 8:49 False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MOST +0.8 pts
Q1 8:42 Holding on Florida International, 10 yards 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q2 11:17 Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MOST +0.7 pts
Q2 7:12 Kick Catch Interference on Florida International, 15 yards +2% MOST +0.9 pts
Q3 6:47 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yards +5% MOST +1.9 pts
Q3 6:47 Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% FIU +0.4 pts
Q4 8:15 Delay of Game on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MOST +0.6 pts
Q4 5:48 Personal Foul on Missouri State, 11 yards +1% FIU +1.4 pts

When it happened

Missouri State’s chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Missouri State was ahead in it, below while Florida International was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:35 Missouri State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedFlorida International fumbled and Missouri State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Holding on Missouri State, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsPass Interference on Florida International, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% MOST MOST: Touchdown
2 Q1 0:00 Florida International converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% MOST FIU: Missed field goal
3 Q2 13:16 Missouri State was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedN. Grant missed a 31-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +5% MOST MOST: Punt
4 Q2 7:12 Missouri State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedKick Catch Interference on Florida International, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% MOST MOST: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:32 Florida International converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +4% FIU FIU: Touchdown
6 Q3 12:11 Missouri State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedMissouri State converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +15% MOST MOST: Touchdown
7 Q3 6:47 Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 16% expectedUnsportsmanlike Conduct on Florida International, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% MOST FIU: Punt
8 Q4 11:25 Florida International was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% MOST FIU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Florida International 75% · Missouri State 25%

Final margin
Missouri State by 7
Luck in points
11.6 for Missouri State
Luck-adjusted margin
Florida International by 4.6
Replay with same day's form
Florida International 41% · Missouri State 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Florida International · Missouri State

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