Week 10 2025 · November 1, 2025
Delaware at Liberty, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Liberty beat Delaware 59–30, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Liberty wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Liberty was a 59% favorite.
Final
 Delaware Blue Hens | 30 |
|---|---|
 Liberty Flames | 59 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 Liberty about even · −1 Delaware
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Delaware wins 0, Liberty wins 10.
- 1 DEL 41 LIB 49
- 2 DEL 26 LIB 44
- 3 DEL 21 LIB 42
- 4 DEL 30 LIB 56
- 5 DEL 27 LIB 56
- 6 DEL 7 LIB 42
- 7 DEL 13 LIB 51
- 8 DEL 7 LIB 49
- 9 DEL 28 LIB 76
- 10 DEL 17 LIB 73
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Delaware wins 1% of them, Liberty 99%. The line is what actually happened: Liberty by 29.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Delaware by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Delaware by 9–16 | 0.2% |
| Delaware by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Liberty by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Liberty by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Liberty by 17+ | 88.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Reed, 42 yds made · 65% expected
- N. Reed, 28 yds made · 85% expected
- N. Reed, 42 yds made · 66% expected
- B. Beck, 32 yds made · 83% expected
Penalties: Delaware 4 for 40 yards, Liberty 1 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:35 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yards | +7% LIB +3.2 pts |
| Q2 0:22 | Personal Foul on Delaware, 15 yards | +1% LIB +0.9 pts |
| Q2 0:20 | Ineligible Downfield on Delaware, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +4% LIB +5.8 pts |
| Q3 13:47 | Illegal Shift on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% LIB +1.9 pts |
| Q3 10:03 | Kick Catch Interference on Liberty, 15 yards | 0% DEL +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Liberty’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:36 | Delaware fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +4% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 3:35 | Pass Interference on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +7% LIB | LIB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 2:19 | Delaware converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +4% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 0:34 | Delaware was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 68% expected | +4% LIB | DEL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q1 0:26 | Delaware converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +4% DEL | DEL: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 11:34 | Delaware was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +5% LIB | DEL: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 10:15 | Liberty was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% DEL | LIB: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 6:13 | Delaware converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% DEL | DEL: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Delaware 0% · Liberty 100%
- Final margin
- Liberty by 29
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for Liberty
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Liberty by 21.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Delaware 1% · Liberty 99% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Delaware · 
Liberty
More from Week 10 2025
- Florida International at Missouri State MOST 28–21 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee JXST 24–21 · replay 75% for the winner
- UTEP at Kennesaw State KENN 33–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech LT 55–14 · replay 100% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Western Kentucky WKU 35–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner