luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 10 2025 · October 29, 2025

Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 31 of the 45 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?

Jacksonville State beat Middle Tennessee 24–21, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.

Before kickoff Jacksonville State was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:19 left): Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 10, worth 12 points of win probability to Jacksonville State.

Final

Jacksonville State Gamecocks 24
Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders 21

October 29, 2025 · Johnny "Red" Floyd Stadium · Closing line: Jacksonville State −4

Luck index +25 Jacksonville State about even · −25 Middle Tennessee

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jacksonville State wins 8, Middle Tennessee wins 2.

  1. 1 JXST 35 MTSU 6
  2. 2 JXST 24 MTSU 3
  3. 3 JXST 24 MTSU 7
  4. 4 JXST 21 MTSU 6
  5. 5 JXST 24 MTSU 12
  6. 6 JXST 23 MTSU 14
  7. 7 JXST 7 MTSU 0
  8. 8 JXST 20 MTSU 17
  9. 9 JXST 7 MTSU 10
  10. 10 JXST 10 MTSU 21

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jacksonville State wins 75% of them, Middle Tennessee 25%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jacksonville State by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jacksonville State by 17+26.2%
Jacksonville State by 9–1621.9%
Jacksonville State by 1–822.8%
Level after regulation7.0%
Middle Tennessee by 1–813.8%
Middle Tennessee by 9–166.2%
Middle Tennessee by 17+2.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to Middle Tennessee: the final margin was Jacksonville State by 3, without the luck Jacksonville State by 6.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Jacksonville State 1 for 10 yards, Middle Tennessee 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 5:17 Holding on Jacksonville State, 10 yards +2% MTSU +0.6 pts
Q2 1:50 Face Mask on Middle Tennessee, 15 yards +4% JXST +1.4 pts
Q2 1:18 Holding on Middle Tennessee, 10 yards +2% JXST +0.8 pts
Q4 10:10 Illegal Substitution on Middle Tennessee, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% JXST +0.5 pts

When it happened

Middle Tennessee’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Middle Tennessee was ahead in it, below while Jacksonville State was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:07 Jacksonville State was stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +7% MTSU JXST: Punt
2 Q2 7:42 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +4% JXST JXST: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:27 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +10% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
4 Q3 7:36 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +7% MTSU MTSU: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:32 Middle Tennessee converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedMiddle Tennessee’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +10% MTSU MTSU: Punt
6 Q3 1:57 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% JXST JXST: Field goal
7 Q4 13:29 G. Rippa made a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 8 of 10 from 45+ before +4% JXST JXST: Touchdown
8 Q4 10:19 Jacksonville State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% JXST JXST: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jacksonville State 88% · Middle Tennessee 12%

Final margin
Jacksonville State by 3
Luck in points
3.1 for Middle Tennessee
Luck-adjusted margin
Jacksonville State by 6.1
Replay with same day's form
Jacksonville State 75% · Middle Tennessee 25% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here. Part of this game's play-by-play is missing from the source: the plays on file account for 31 of the 45 points, so the replay rests on the plays there are.

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · Jacksonville State · Middle Tennessee

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