Week 10 2025 · October 31, 2025
Sam Houston at Louisiana Tech, Week 10 2025: who deserved to win?
Louisiana Tech beat Sam Houston 55–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Louisiana Tech wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Louisiana Tech was an 86% favorite.
Final
 Sam Houston Bearkats | 14 |
|---|---|
 Louisiana Tech Bulldogs | 55 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Louisiana Tech about even · 0 Sam Houston
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Sam Houston wins 0, Louisiana Tech wins 10.
- 1 SHSU 35 LT 42
- 2 SHSU 35 LT 52
- 3 SHSU 34 LT 59
- 4 SHSU 41 LT 70
- 5 SHSU 30 LT 65
- 6 SHSU 20 LT 58
- 7 SHSU 14 LT 56
- 8 SHSU 24 LT 70
- 9 SHSU 21 LT 73
- 10 SHSU 10 LT 70
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Sam Houston wins 0% of them, Louisiana Tech 100%. The line is what actually happened: Louisiana Tech by 41.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Sam Houston by 17+ | 0.1% |
| Sam Houston by 9–16 | 0.0% |
| Sam Houston by 1–8 | 0.2% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Louisiana Tech by 1–8 | 0.9% |
| Louisiana Tech by 9–16 | 2.8% |
| Louisiana Tech by 17+ | 95.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Sam Houston 9 for 65 yards, Louisiana Tech 5 for 51 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 5:47 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.6 pts |
| Q1 5:31 | Holding on Sam Houston, 3 yards, wiping out the play | +1% LT +1.7 pts |
| Q1 5:02 | Face Mask on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | +1% SHSU +1.6 pts |
| Q2 10:59 | Illegal Block on Louisiana Tech, 5 yards | 0% SHSU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Unnecessary Roughness on Sam Houston, 12 yards | 0% LT +0.7 pts |
| Q3 12:56 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | 0% SHSU 0.0 pts |
| Q3 12:56 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Louisiana Tech, 15 yards | 0% SHSU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 3:25 | Illegal Use of Hands on Sam Houston, 10 yards | 0% LT +1.3 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +1.7 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 11:13 | Targeting on Sam Houston, 15 yards | 0% LT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 11:13 | Delay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% LT +1.8 pts |
| Q4 3:32 | Holding on Louisiana Tech, 1 yard | 0% SHSU +0.1 pts |
When it happened
Louisiana Tech’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:44 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +1% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:55 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +1% LT | SHSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 5:31 | Holding on Sam Houston, 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +1% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:02 | Face Mask on Louisiana Tech, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +1% SHSU | SHSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 2:18 | Sam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% LT | SHSU: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 14:03 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +1% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 8:34 | Louisiana Tech converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 35% expected | +0% LT | LT: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:13 | Sam Houston converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expectedSam Houston was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedSam Houston converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedTargeting on Sam Houston, 15 yardsJudgment callsDelay of Game on Sam Houston, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by Louisiana TechSpecial teams | +0% LT | SHSU: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Sam Houston 0% · Louisiana Tech 100%
- Final margin
- Louisiana Tech by 41
- Luck in points
- 10.5 for Louisiana Tech
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Louisiana Tech by 30.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Sam Houston 0% · Louisiana Tech 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2025 games · 
Sam Houston · 
Louisiana Tech
More from Week 10 2025
- Florida International at Missouri State MOST 28–21 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jacksonville State at Middle Tennessee JXST 24–21 · replay 75% for the winner
- UTEP at Kennesaw State KENN 33–20 · replay 76% for the winner
- Delaware at Liberty LIB 59–30 · replay 99% for the winner
- New Mexico State at Western Kentucky WKU 35–16 · replay 100% for the winner
- Oklahoma at Tennessee OU 33–27 · replay 17% for the winner
- Duke at Clemson DUKE 46–45 · replay 22% for the winner
- Mississippi State at Arkansas MSST 38–35 · replay 23% for the winner
- Washington State at Oregon State ORST 10–7 · replay 27% for the winner
- Miami at SMU SMU 26–20 · replay 32% for the winner
- Army at Air Force ARMY 20–17 · replay 34% for the winner
- Georgia Tech at NC State NCSU 48–36 · replay 35% for the winner