Conference USA · 2026 season, in progress

Delaware Blue Hens: luck and expected wins

Delaware is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.0 wins. Luck added 0.0: the 64th-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 1–0.

2026, game by game

How often Delaware wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Merrimack	W 42–7	100%	0
Week 2	@ Vanderbilt	L 26–35	26%	−26
Week 3	vs Coastal Carolina	W 22–14	72%	+28
Week 4	@ Virginia	L 3–42	0%	0

Wk 1 0 vs MRMK

Wk 2 −26 @ VAN

Wk 3 +28 vs CCU

Wk 4 0 @ UVA

Next games: our predictions

Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.

Week	Game	Our pick	Delaware win chance
Week 5 · Oct 2	vs Liberty	Liberty by 4.6	39%
Week 7 · Oct 13	at Middle Tennessee	Delaware by 1.5	54%
Week 8 · Oct 20	vs Missouri State	Delaware by 5.7	63%
Week 9 · Oct 27	at Western Kentucky	Delaware even	50%
Week 10 · Nov 7	at Kennesaw State	Kennesaw State by 4.1	40%
Week 11 · Nov 14	vs Florida International	Delaware by 3.6	58%
Week 12 · Nov 21	at New Mexico State	Delaware by 2.5	56%
Week 13 · Nov 28	vs Jacksonville State	Jacksonville State by 0.1	50%

Where the luck came from, 2026

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Delaware’s favor.

Kind	Wins	Points
Pre-snap flags	+0.04	+8.4
Fumble bounces	+0.03	+13.6
3rd & 4th downs	−0.11	+3.5

Luckiest wins

Wins Delaware takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 11	vs Louisiana Tech	W 25–24	25%	+75
2025 Week 9	vs Middle Tennessee	W 31–28	42%	+58
2025 Week 3	vs UConn	W 44–41	50%	+50
2026 Week 3	vs Coastal Carolina	W 22–14	72%	+28
2025 68 Ventures Bowl	vs Louisiana	W 20–13	74%	+26

Unluckiest losses

Losses Delaware would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 6	vs Western Kentucky	L 24–27	77%	−77
2025 Week 12	vs Sam Houston	L 23–26	54%	−54
2026 Week 2	@ Vanderbilt	L 26–35	26%	−26
2025 Week 8	@ Jacksonville State	L 25–38	21%	−21
2025 Week 2	@ Colorado	L 7–31	12%	−12

Earlier seasons

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Postseason
2025	6–6	5.5	+0.5	3–2	1–0

2025, game by game

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Delaware State	W 35–17	84%	+16
Week 2	@ Colorado	L 7–31	12%	−12
Week 3	vs UConn	W 44–41	50%	+50
Week 4	@ Florida International	W 38–16	85%	+15
Week 6	vs Western Kentucky	L 24–27	77%	−77
Week 8	@ Jacksonville State	L 25–38	21%	−21
Week 9	vs Middle Tennessee	W 31–28	42%	+58
Week 10	@ Liberty	L 30–59	1%	−1
Week 11	vs Louisiana Tech	W 25–24	25%	+75
Week 12	vs Sam Houston	L 23–26	54%	−54
Week 13	@ Wake Forest	L 14–52	0%	0
Week 14	vs UTEP	W 61–31	96%	+4
68 Ventures Bowl	vs Louisiana	W 20–13	74%	+26