luckadjusted
CFB Week 4 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026

Merrimack at Delaware, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

Delaware beat Merrimack 42–7, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Delaware wins 10 of 10.

Before kickoff Delaware was a 98% favorite.

Final

Merrimack Warriors 7
Delaware Blue Hens 42

September 3, 2026 · Delaware Stadium · Closing line: Delaware −31.5

Luck index 0 Delaware about even · 0 Merrimack

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Merrimack wins 0, Delaware wins 10.

  1. 1 MRMK 17 DEL 30
  2. 2 MRMK 17 DEL 38
  3. 3 MRMK 3 DEL 30
  4. 4 MRMK 6 DEL 37
  5. 5 MRMK 6 DEL 41
  6. 6 MRMK 3 DEL 41
  7. 7 MRMK 6 DEL 49
  8. 8 MRMK 9 DEL 55
  9. 9 MRMK 0 DEL 52
  10. 10 MRMK 3 DEL 61

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Merrimack wins 0% of them, Delaware 100%. The line is what actually happened: Delaware by 35.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Merrimack by 17+0.0%
Merrimack by 9–160.0%
Merrimack by 1–80.1%
Level after regulation0.1%
Delaware by 1–80.4%
Delaware by 9–162.4%
Delaware by 17+97.1%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.4 points to Delaware: the final margin was Delaware by 35, without the luck Delaware by 22.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

  • G. Bartolomeo, 45 yds missed · 63% expected
  • T. Smack, 47 yds missed · 59% expected
  • T. Smack, 26 yds blocked · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Merrimack 7 for 55 yards, Delaware 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 4:36 Ineligible Downfield on Merrimack, 5 yards, wiping out the play 0% DEL +2.0 pts
Q2 7:53 Horse Collar Tackle on Delaware, 15 yards 0% MRMK +1.6 pts
Q2 3:55 Delay of Game on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL 0.0 pts
Q2 3:07 Illegal Block on Merrimack, 10 yards 0% DEL +0.6 pts
Q2 2:20 Illegal Block on Delaware, 10 yards 0% MRMK +0.6 pts
Q2 1:22 Pass Interference on Merrimack, 15 yards 0% DEL +0.2 pts
Q3 10:30 Delay of Game on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +3.6 pts
Q3 9:04 Holding on Merrimack, 10 yards 0% DEL +0.6 pts
Q4 7:55 False Start on Merrimack, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DEL +0.8 pts
Q4 3:53 False Start on Delaware, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MRMK +0.3 pts

When it happened

Delaware’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Delaware was ahead in it, below while Merrimack was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:33 Merrimack converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +0% MRMK MRMK: Punt
2 Q1 4:36 Ineligible Downfield on Merrimack, 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +0% DEL DEL: Missed field goal
3 Q1 2:52 Merrimack converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +0% MRMK MRMK: Missed field goal
4 Q2 14:55 G. Bartolomeo missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 63% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +0% DEL MRMK: Punt
5 Q2 10:34 T. Smack missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +0% MRMK DEL: Punt
6 Q2 7:53 Horse Collar Tackle on Delaware, 15 yardsJudgment calls +0% MRMK MRMK: Turnover
7 Q2 6:32 Merrimack converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +1% MRMK MRMK: Turnover
8 Q2 4:34 Delaware converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +1% DEL DEL: Touchdown

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Merrimack 0% · Delaware 100%

Final margin
Delaware by 35
Luck in points
12.4 for Delaware
Luck-adjusted margin
Delaware by 22.6
Replay with same day's form
Merrimack 0% · Delaware 100% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Merrimack · Delaware

More from Week 1 2026

Every week 1 game, 2026