Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Florida International at South Florida, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
South Florida beat Florida International 19–9, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, South Florida wins 4 of 10. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 22 points of win probability to South Florida.
South Florida won on an off day: its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida International it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 44%. The numbers
Before kickoff South Florida was an 83% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:00 left): Illegal Substitution on Florida International, 5 yards, worth 13 points of win probability to South Florida.
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +56 South Florida lucky · −56 Florida International
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Florida International wins 6, South Florida wins 4.
- 1 FIU 33 USF 7
- 2 FIU 20 USF 3
- 3 FIU 13 USF 0
- 4 FIU 17 USF 7
- 5 FIU 20 USF 14
- 6 FIU 3 USF 0
- 7 FIU 0 USF 3
- 8 FIU 7 USF 13
- 9 FIU 0 USF 10
- 10 FIU 6 USF 24
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
South Florida won on an off day
Its offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against Florida International it would win 75% of the time; with this day’s form, 44%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for South Florida: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Florida International offenseEPA per play gained | −0.25 | +0.07 | worse by 0.32 |
| Florida International defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.30 | +0.09 | better by 0.39 |
| South Florida offenseEPA per play gained | −0.30 | +0.10 | worse by 0.41 |
| South Florida defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.25 | +0.07 | better by 0.32 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Florida International wins 56% of them, South Florida 44%, counting the 8% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: South Florida by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Florida International by 17+ | 15.4% |
| Florida International by 9–16 | 19.3% |
| Florida International by 1–8 | 21.2% |
| Level after regulation | 7.9% |
| South Florida by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| South Florida by 9–16 | 12.1% |
| South Florida by 17+ | 6.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- N. Gramatica, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- N. Gramatica, 53 yds made · 50% expected
- R. Czeremcha, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- N. Gramatica, 30 yds made · 89% expected
- N. Gramatica, 29 yds made · 90% expected
Penalties: Florida International 8 for 50 yards, South Florida 4 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:28 | Pass Interference on South Florida, 15 yards | +5% FIU +3.5 pts |
| Q1 10:28 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USF +2.2 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% USF +2.4 pts |
| Q2 1:54 | Holding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% USF +1.9 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +0.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Substitution on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +0.6 pts |
| Q3 9:04 | False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% USF +0.5 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 3:32 | False Start on South Florida, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FIU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 0:00 | Illegal Substitution on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +13% USF +7.4 pts |
| Q4 13:07 | False Start on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USF +1.0 pts |
| Q4 1:40 | Illegal Substitution on Florida International, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USF +4.1 pts |
When it happened
South Florida’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:28 | Florida International was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedPass Interference on South Florida, 15 yardsJudgment callsFalse Start on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +3% FIU | FIU: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q1 5:27 | Florida International was stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedSouth Florida converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedSouth Florida was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +3% USF | FIU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q2 1:54 | Florida International converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedFlorida International converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expectedHolding on Florida International, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +3% USF | FIU: End of half |
| 4 | Q3 9:04 | South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedR. Czeremcha made a 29-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for himFalse Start on South Florida, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% USF | USF: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q3 5:35 | South Florida was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +3% FIU | USF: Punt |
| 6 | Q3 0:00 | Illegal Substitution on Florida International, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +13% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 15:00 | South Florida converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +3% USF | USF: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 11:11 | South Florida converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedSouth Florida was stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFlorida International fumbled and South Florida recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +3% USF | USF: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Florida International 89% · South Florida 11%
- Final margin
- South Florida by 10
- Luck in points
- 24.0 for South Florida
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Florida International by 14.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Florida International 56% · South Florida 44% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Florida International · 
South Florida
More from Week 1 2026
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- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
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- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
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