Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Arkansas State at Memphis, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Memphis beat Arkansas State 42–24, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Memphis wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Memphis was a 75% favorite.
Final
 Arkansas State Red Wolves | 24 |
|---|---|
 Memphis Tigers | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Memphis about even · −12 Arkansas State
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Arkansas State wins 1, Memphis wins 9.
- 1 ARST 38 MEM 31
- 2 ARST 35 MEM 38
- 3 ARST 38 MEM 45
- 4 ARST 38 MEM 49
- 5 ARST 30 MEM 44
- 6 ARST 27 MEM 45
- 7 ARST 34 MEM 56
- 8 ARST 10 MEM 35
- 9 ARST 34 MEM 65
- 10 ARST 26 MEM 66
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Arkansas State wins 12% of them, Memphis 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Memphis by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Arkansas State by 17+ | 1.3% |
| Arkansas State by 9–16 | 3.3% |
| Arkansas State by 1–8 | 6.6% |
| Level after regulation | 0.9% |
| Memphis by 1–8 | 16.8% |
| Memphis by 9–16 | 17.8% |
| Memphis by 17+ | 53.4% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: Arkansas State 5 for 37 yards, Memphis 4 for 45 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:44 | Roughing the Passer on Memphis, 15 yards | +3% ARST +1.5 pts |
| Q1 3:31 | Tripping on Arkansas State, 15 yards | +5% MEM +2.4 pts |
| Q2 12:07 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 2 yards | +3% MEM +1.9 pts |
| Q2 12:00 | Holding on Arkansas State, 10 yards | +2% MEM +1.1 pts |
| Q2 6:54 | Illegal Block on Memphis, 10 yards | +1% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q3 2:50 | Pass Interference on Memphis, 15 yards | +1% ARST +1.1 pts |
| Q3 0:28 | False Start on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MEM +0.9 pts |
| Q4 8:13 | False Start on Memphis, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ARST +0.6 pts |
| Q4 4:52 | Offside on Arkansas State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MEM +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Memphis’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:44 | Roughing the Passer on Memphis, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ARST | ARST: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 10:11 | Memphis was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 80% expected | +3% ARST | MEM: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:31 | Tripping on Arkansas State, 15 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 1:44 | C. Van Andel made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 59% expected for him, 8 of 12 from 45+ before | +3% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 12:07 | Pass Interference on Arkansas State, 2 yardsJudgment calls | +3% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 10:41 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% ARST | ARST: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 5:13 | Memphis converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% MEM | MEM: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q3 8:02 | Arkansas State converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +2% ARST | ARST: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Arkansas State 0% · Memphis 100%
- Final margin
- Memphis by 18
- Luck in points
- 0.2 for Arkansas State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Memphis by 18.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Arkansas State 12% · Memphis 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Arkansas State · 
Memphis
More from Week 1 2026
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Coastal Carolina at West Virginia WVU 31–24 · replay 42% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Sam Houston at Troy TROY 24–21 · replay 55% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Liberty at James Madison JMU 20–13 · replay 89% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner