Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
The Citadel at Charlotte, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Citadel beat Charlotte 43–41, but the replays lean toward Charlotte: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: pre-snap flags alone were worth 13 points of win probability to The Citadel.
Before kickoff Charlotte was a 91% favorite. The biggest swing (2OT): the Citadel’s two-point try failed, worth 22 points of win probability to Charlotte.
Final (OT)
 The Citadel Bulldogs | 43 |
|---|---|
 Charlotte 49ers | 41 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 The Citadel very lucky · −77 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. The Citadel wins 2, Charlotte wins 8.
- 1 CIT 29 CLT 17
- 2 CIT 41 CLT 38
- 3 CIT 21 CLT 24
- 4 CIT 31 CLT 37
- 5 CIT 28 CLT 37
- 6 CIT 20 CLT 31
- 7 CIT 34 CLT 49
- 8 CIT 17 CLT 35
- 9 CIT 17 CLT 41
- 10 CIT 7 CLT 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
The Citadel wins 23% of them, Charlotte 77%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: The Citadel by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| The Citadel by 17+ | 3.6% |
| The Citadel by 9–16 | 6.7% |
| The Citadel by 1–8 | 12.8% |
| Level after regulation | 3.9% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 22.0% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 19.8% |
| Charlotte by 17+ | 31.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: The Citadel 2 for 10 yards, Charlotte 6 for 35 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:20 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | +1% CIT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 8:28 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CIT +1.7 pts |
| Q3 8:05 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CIT +0.6 pts |
| Q3 1:51 | Offside on Charlotte, 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% CIT 0.0 pts |
| Q4 13:17 | False Start on The Citadel, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:47 | Delay of Game on The Citadel, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% CLT +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:34 | Illegal Block on Charlotte, 10 yards | +3% CIT +0.6 pts |
| Q4 0:53 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | +11% CIT +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Charlotte’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 95%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 10:00 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +7% CIT | CLT: Turnover on downs |
| 2 | Q4 6:02 | Charlotte was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +15% CIT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 2:45 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% CLT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 2:00 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% CLT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:40 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +11% CLT | CLT: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:53 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +11% CIT | CIT: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | 2OT | Charlotte’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +22% CIT | – |
| 8 | 2OT | The Citadel’s two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +22% CLT | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
The Citadel 58% · Charlotte 42%
- Final margin
- The Citadel by 2
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for The Citadel
- Luck-adjusted margin
- The Citadel by 1.3
- Replay with same day's form
- The Citadel 23% · Charlotte 77% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
The Citadel · 
Charlotte
More from Week 1 2026
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Houston Christian at Rice RICE 31–3 · replay 98% for the winner
- East Carolina at Alabama ALA 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- UT Rio Grande Valley at UTSA UTSA 45–16 · replay 99% for the winner