Week 1 2026 · September 5, 2026
Houston Christian at Rice, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Rice beat Houston Christian 31–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Rice wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Rice was a 93% favorite.
Final
 Houston Christian Huskies | 3 |
|---|---|
 Rice Owls | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +2 Rice about even · −2 Houston Christian
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Houston Christian wins 0, Rice wins 10.
- 1 HCU 14 RICE 19
- 2 HCU 3 RICE 13
- 3 HCU 0 RICE 14
- 4 HCU 7 RICE 24
- 5 HCU 10 RICE 31
- 6 HCU 7 RICE 30
- 7 HCU 0 RICE 27
- 8 HCU 0 RICE 31
- 9 HCU 3 RICE 37
- 10 HCU 0 RICE 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Houston Christian wins 2% of them, Rice 98%. The line is what actually happened: Rice by 28.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Houston Christian by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Houston Christian by 9–16 | 0.4% |
| Houston Christian by 1–8 | 1.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.3% |
| Rice by 1–8 | 5.7% |
| Rice by 9–16 | 14.0% |
| Rice by 17+ | 78.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Smolen, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- E. Gota, 26 yds made · 90% expected
- E. Gota, 51 yds missed · 52% expected
Penalties: Houston Christian 3 for 25 yards, Rice 3 for 30 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 7:10 | False Start on Rice, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% HCU +0.8 pts |
| Q2 9:32 | Delay of Game on Houston Christian, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% HCU +0.7 pts |
| Q2 2:24 | Holding on Houston Christian, 10 yards | 0% RICE +0.6 pts |
| Q3 0:12 | Holding on Rice, 10 yards | 0% HCU +1.4 pts |
| Q4 1:57 | Pass Interference on Rice, 15 yards | 0% HCU +1.7 pts |
| Q4 0:32 | Pass Interference on Houston Christian, 10 yards | 0% RICE +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Rice’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:11 | Rice was stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +2% HCU | RICE: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:24 | L. Smolen made a 42-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him | +1% HCU | HCU: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q1 8:32 | Rice fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +1% RICE | RICE: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 5:33 | Rice converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +3% RICE | RICE: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q1 2:36 | Rice converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +1% RICE | RICE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q1 1:02 | Rice converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +1% RICE | RICE: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q2 14:06 | Houston Christian was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +2% RICE | HCU: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 9:32 | Rice converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedDelay of Game on Houston Christian, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +1% RICE | RICE: Field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Houston Christian 0% · Rice 100%
- Final margin
- Rice by 28
- Luck in points
- 4.3 for Rice
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rice by 23.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Houston Christian 2% · Rice 98% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Houston Christian · 
Rice
More from Week 1 2026
- SE Louisiana at South Alabama USA 39–14 · replay 12% for the winner
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner
- UAB at Illinois ILL 42–23 · replay 95% for the winner
- Rhode Island at Temple TEM 38–14 · replay 95% for the winner
- Towson at Navy NAVY 42–15 · replay 97% for the winner
- Tulane at Duke DUKE 17–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- East Carolina at Alabama ALA 48–10 · replay 99% for the winner