Week 1 2026 · September 3, 2026
UAB at Illinois, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat UAB 42–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Illinois wins 9 of 10.
Before kickoff Illinois was a 95% favorite.
Final
 UAB Blazers | 23 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 42 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +5 Illinois about even · −5 UAB
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UAB wins 1, Illinois wins 9.
- 1 UAB 17 ILL 10
- 2 UAB 17 ILL 20
- 3 UAB 7 ILL 14
- 4 UAB 14 ILL 24
- 5 UAB 7 ILL 20
- 6 UAB 6 ILL 21
- 7 UAB 10 ILL 28
- 8 UAB 7 ILL 29
- 9 UAB 7 ILL 34
- 10 UAB 14 ILL 48
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UAB wins 5% of them, Illinois 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 19.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UAB by 17+ | 0.3% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 1.1% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 3.5% |
| Level after regulation | 0.8% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 18.1% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 20.6% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 55.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Delange, 26 yds made · 92% expected
- J. Delange, 23 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Delange, 35 yds made · 82% expected
Penalties: UAB 9 for 69 yards, Illinois 1 for 4 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:14 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% ILL +3.5 pts |
| Q1 2:59 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 13:46 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards | 0% ILL +1.1 pts |
| Q2 11:44 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:47 | Delay of Game on Illinois, 4 yards · pre-snap | 0% UAB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 7:26 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ILL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 5:03 | Pass Interference on UAB, 12 yards | +1% ILL +1.7 pts |
| Q4 12:34 | Personal Foul on UAB, 7 yards | 0% ILL +1.9 pts |
| Q4 12:25 | Ineligible Downfield on UAB, 5 yards | 0% ILL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:06 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ILL +1.8 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:14 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +2% ILL | ILL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 9:44 | UAB was stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +0% ILL | UAB: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 3:26 | UAB converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +1% UAB | UAB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 2:32 | UAB was stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +0% ILL | UAB: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 5:54 | UAB was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +1% ILL | UAB: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 5:03 | Pass Interference on UAB, 12 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ILL | ILL: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 3:03 | Illinois was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +1% UAB | ILL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 1:57 | UAB converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +1% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UAB 0% · Illinois 100%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 19
- Luck in points
- 7.3 for UAB
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 26.3
- Replay with same day's form
- UAB 5% · Illinois 95% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
UAB · 
Illinois
More from Week 1 2026
- The Citadel at Charlotte CIT 43–41 · replay 23% for the winner
- Florida International at South Florida USF 19–9 · replay 44% for the winner
- Toledo at Michigan State MSU 30–20 · replay 49% for the winner
- Massachusetts at Rutgers MASS 37–21 · replay 74% for the winner
- Wisconsin vs Notre Dame ND 41–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Oklahoma State at Tulsa TLSA 24–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Memphis at UNLV MEM 27–21 · replay 84% for the winner
- Western Michigan at Michigan MICH 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Arkansas State at Memphis MEM 42–24 · replay 88% for the winner
- Washington State at Washington WASH 24–10 · replay 89% for the winner
- Boise State at Oregon ORE 34–27 · replay 91% for the winner
- North Texas at Indiana IU 52–16 · replay 92% for the winner