Big Ten · 2026 season, in progress
Illinois Fighting Illini: luck and expected wins
Illinois is 2–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, its play was worth 2.7 wins. Luck cost 0.7: the 21st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams. In one-score games: 0–1.
2026, game by game
How often Illinois wins each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played (the postgame win expectancy), and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs UAB | W 42–23 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 2 | vs Duke | L 27–31 | 75% | −75 |
| Week 3 | vs Southern Illinois | W 48–10 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Ohio State | L 19–42 | 3% | −3 |
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Illinois win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 5 · Oct 3 | vs Purdue |  Illinois by 16.8 | 85% |
| Week 6 · Oct 10 | at Michigan State | Illinois by 2.1 | 55% |
| Week 8 · Oct 24 | vs Oregon |  Oregon by 6.0 | 36% |
| Week 9 · Oct 31 | at Maryland | Illinois by 9.8 | 72% |
| Week 10 · Nov 6 | vs Nebraska |  Nebraska by 2.7 | 43% |
| Week 11 · Nov 13 | at UCLA |  UCLA by 6.8 | 34% |
| Week 12 · Nov 21 | vs Iowa |  Iowa by 4.4 | 40% |
| Week 13 · Nov 28 | at Northwestern |  Northwestern by 5.3 | 38% |
Where the luck came from, 2026
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in Illinois’s favor.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | −0.06 | −5.5 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.18 | −5.8 |
Luckiest wins
Wins Illinois takes least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl | vs Tennessee | W 30–28 | 36% | +64 |
| 2025 Week 2 | @ Duke | W 45–19 | 47% | +53 |
| 2025 Week 6 | @ Purdue | W 43–27 | 76% | +24 |
| 2025 Week 5 | vs USC | W 34–32 | 76% | +24 |
| 2025 Week 14 | vs Northwestern | W 20–13 | 88% | +12 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses Illinois would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Week 2 | vs Duke | L 27–31 | 75% | −75 |
| 2025 Week 9 | @ Washington | L 25–42 | 42% | −42 |
| 2025 Week 7 | vs Ohio State | L 16–34 | 39% | −39 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Wisconsin | L 10–27 | 33% | −33 |
| 2026 Week 4 | @ Ohio State | L 19–42 | 3% | −3 |
Earlier seasons
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Postseason |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | 8–4 | 7.9 | +0.1 | 2–0 | 1–0 |
2025, game by game
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Western Illinois | W 52–3 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 2 | @ Duke | W 45–19 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 3 | vs Western Michigan | W 38–0 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 4 | @ Indiana | L 10–63 | 0% | 0 |
| Week 5 | vs USC | W 34–32 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 6 | @ Purdue | W 43–27 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 7 | vs Ohio State | L 16–34 | 39% | −39 |
| Week 9 | @ Washington | L 25–42 | 42% | −42 |
| Week 10 | vs Rutgers | W 35–13 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 12 | vs Maryland | W 24–6 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 13 | @ Wisconsin | L 10–27 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 14 | vs Northwestern | W 20–13 | 88% | +12 |
| Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl | vs Tennessee | W 30–28 | 36% | +64 |
More
- 2026 college football luck rankings
- Big Ten teams by luck
- Big Ten:
Indiana, Iowa, 
Maryland, 
Michigan, 
Michigan State, 
Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, 
Ohio State, Oregon, 
Penn State, 
Purdue, 
Rutgers, UCLA, 
USC, 
Washington, 
Wisconsin
How many wins does Illinois have in 2026?
2–2 so far. Replayed with the way both teams played, its games were worth 2.7 wins.
Was Illinois lucky or unlucky in 2026?
Unlucky so far: −0.7 wins of luck, the 21st-unluckiest of 138 FBS teams.
What was Illinois’s luckiest season?
2025: 8–4 from play worth 7.9 wins, +0.1 of luck. The unluckiest: 2026, 2–2 from play worth 2.7 (−0.7).