Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Northwestern at Illinois, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Illinois beat Northwestern 20–13, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Illinois wins 9 of 10. Northwestern had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 10 points of win probability to Northwestern.
Before kickoff Illinois was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:32 left): Illinois fumbled and Northwestern recovered, worth 9 points of win probability to Northwestern.
Final
 Northwestern Wildcats | 13 |
|---|---|
 Illinois Fighting Illini | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Illinois about even · −12 Northwestern
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Northwestern wins 1, Illinois wins 9.
- 1 NU 16 ILL 10
- 2 NU 22 ILL 24
- 3 NU 17 ILL 24
- 4 NU 17 ILL 27
- 5 NU 11 ILL 24
- 6 NU 13 ILL 28
- 7 NU 3 ILL 20
- 8 NU 17 ILL 38
- 9 NU 0 ILL 26
- 10 NU 3 ILL 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Northwestern wins 12% of them, Illinois 88%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Illinois by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Northwestern by 17+ | 1.1% |
| Northwestern by 9–16 | 3.2% |
| Northwestern by 1–8 | 6.8% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Illinois by 1–8 | 17.9% |
| Illinois by 9–16 | 20.7% |
| Illinois by 17+ | 49.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- J. Olsen, 38 yds made · 76% expected
- D. Olano, 47 yds made · 62% expected
- J. Olsen, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- D. Olano, 27 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Northwestern 4 for 35 yards, Illinois 5 for 44 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:21 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | +3% NU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | Illegal Substitution on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:49 | Ineligible Downfield on Northwestern, 5 yards | +1% ILL +0.4 pts |
| Q2 1:18 | Roughing the Passer on Northwestern, 15 yards | +2% ILL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:25 | Holding on Illinois, 10 yards | +3% NU +1.5 pts |
| Q3 3:24 | Delay of Game on Illinois, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NU +0.8 pts |
| Q3 0:51 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 14 yards | +4% NU +1.6 pts |
| Q4 7:50 | Delay of Game on Northwestern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% ILL +0.5 pts |
| Q4 2:07 | Holding on Northwestern, 10 yards | +1% ILL +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Illinois’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:28 | Northwestern converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +6% NU | NU: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 5:50 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +7% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 0:51 | Pass Interference on Illinois, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +4% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 4 | Q4 13:09 | Northwestern fumbled and recovered itFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 5 | Q4 12:37 | Northwestern converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% NU | NU: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 9:32 | Illinois fumbled and Northwestern recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% NU | ILL: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 7:50 | Northwestern was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expectedDelay of Game on Northwestern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +8% ILL | NU: Field goal |
| 8 | Q4 6:20 | Illinois was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 58% expected | +5% NU | ILL: Punt |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Northwestern 1% · Illinois 99%
- Final margin
- Illinois by 7
- Luck in points
- 7.9 for Northwestern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Illinois by 14.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Northwestern 12% · Illinois 88% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Northwestern · 
Illinois
More from Week 14 2025
- Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
- Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
- Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner