Indiana at Purdue, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?

Final

Indiana Hoosiers	56
Purdue Boilermakers	3

November 28, 2025 · Ross-Ade Stadium · Closing line: Indiana −28.5

Replay with same day's form

Luck index 0 Indiana about even · 0 Purdue

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Indiana wins 10, Purdue wins 0.

1 IU 64 PUR 0
2 IU 62 PUR 7
3 IU 49 PUR 0
4 IU 48 PUR 3
5 IU 55 PUR 14
6 IU 45 PUR 7
7 IU 41 PUR 7
8 IU 33 PUR 3
9 IU 45 PUR 20
10 IU 38 PUR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

Before kickoff

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

Same teams, fresh game

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Indiana wins 100% of them, Purdue 0%. The line is what actually happened: Indiana by 53.

Actual: Indiana by 53 494235282114707142128354249 ← Indiana win by Purdue win by →

Show as a table

Final margin in the replays	Share of replays
Indiana by 17+	96.8%
Indiana by 9–16	2.2%
Indiana by 1–8	0.8%
Level after regulation	0.1%
Purdue by 1–8	0.1%
Purdue by 9–16	0.0%
Purdue by 17+	0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

3rd & 4th downs +1% PUR

All luck +1% PUR

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.0 points to Purdue: the final margin was Indiana by 53, without the luck Indiana by 55. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.

S. Porath, 22 yds made · 93% expected
S. Porath, 54 yds missed · 47% expected

Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Indiana 2 for 15 yards, Purdue 3 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued

When	Flag	Win probability for
Q2 13:13	False Start on Indiana, 5 yards · pre-snap	0% PUR +0.5 pts
Q3 14:54	Holding on Indiana, 10 yards	0% PUR +0.6 pts
Q3 12:09	Horse Collar Tackle on Purdue, 15 yards	0% IU +2.3 pts
Q3 5:15	Holding on Purdue, 10 yards, wiping out the play	+1% IU +3.7 pts
Q4 8:52	Illegal Block on Purdue, 10 yards, wiping out the play	0% IU +2.3 pts

When it happened

Purdue’s chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

Purdue 50% Indiana Q1Q2Q3Q4 1234678

Our in-game win probability: the score, the value of the possession and the time left, starting from the betting line. Overtime has no clock and is drawn at a fixed width. Shaded above the middle while Purdue was ahead in it, below while Indiana was.

#	When	What happened	Win probability for	Next drive
1	Q1 13:25	Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 34% expected	+0% PUR	IU: Punt
2	Q1 11:37	Purdue converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 22% expected	+1% PUR	PUR: Punt
3	Q1 6:39	Indiana was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 42% expected	+0% PUR	IU: Punt
4	Q1 4:56	Purdue converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 23% expected	+1% PUR	PUR: Field goal
5	Q1 3:33	Purdue converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected	+1% PUR	PUR: Field goal
6	Q1 1:23	Purdue was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 46% expected	+0% IU	PUR: Field goal
7	Q3 5:15	Holding on Purdue, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+1% IU	IU: Touchdown
8	Q4 8:52	Illegal Block on Purdue, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls	+0% IU	IU: Punt

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · Indiana · Purdue

More from Week 14 2025

Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner

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