Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Oregon at Washington, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Oregon beat Washington 26–14, but the replays lean toward Washington: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to Oregon.
Oregon won on an off day: it played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Washington it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%. The numbers
Before kickoff Oregon was a 66% favorite.
Final
 Oregon Ducks | 26 |
|---|---|
 Washington Huskies | 14 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 Oregon very lucky · −67 Washington
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Oregon wins 3, Washington wins 7.
- 1 ORE 31 WASH 10
- 2 ORE 20 WASH 10
- 3 ORE 20 WASH 17
- 4 ORE 15 WASH 17
- 5 ORE 15 WASH 20
- 6 ORE 20 WASH 28
- 7 ORE 10 WASH 21
- 8 ORE 20 WASH 36
- 9 ORE 3 WASH 23
- 10 ORE 13 WASH 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
Oregon won on an off day
It played far below what the matchup promised. In a fresh game against Washington it would win 68% of the time; with this day’s form, 34%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
34 points apart for Oregon: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Oregon offenseEPA per play gained | +0.02 | +0.11 | worse by 0.09 |
| Oregon defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.09 | +0.04 | better by 0.13 |
| Washington offenseEPA per play gained | −0.09 | +0.14 | worse by 0.23 |
| Washington defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.03 | better by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Oregon wins 33% of them, Washington 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Oregon by 12.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Oregon by 17+ | 6.8% |
| Oregon by 9–16 | 9.4% |
| Oregon by 1–8 | 15.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.8% |
| Washington by 1–8 | 20.8% |
| Washington by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Washington by 17+ | 24.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- A. Sappington, 46 yds made · 62% expected
- A. Sappington, 32 yds made · 86% expected
- A. Sappington, 37 yds made · 79% expected
- A. Sappington, 51 yds made · 54% expected
Penalties: Oregon 5 for 58 yards, Washington 4 for 39 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 4:05 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Oregon, 15 yards | +2% WASH +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:59 | Pass Interference on Washington, 15 yards | +2% ORE +0.9 pts |
| Q2 3:17 | Pass Interference on Oregon, 15 yards | +1% WASH +0.8 pts |
| Q2 1:01 | Illegal Snap on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ORE +0.5 pts |
| Q3 10:24 | Holding on Oregon, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +2% WASH +1.3 pts |
| Q3 4:58 | Pass Interference on Washington, 14 yards | +3% ORE +2.5 pts |
| Q3 4:20 | False Start on Oregon, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% WASH +0.5 pts |
| Q3 1:01 | False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ORE +0.4 pts |
| Q3 0:46 | Personal Foul on Oregon, 13 yards | +1% WASH +0.8 pts |
When it happened
Washington’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | Oregon converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 4:55 | Oregon converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected | +3% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:10 | Washington converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +3% WASH | WASH: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 13:46 | Oregon converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +5% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 4:58 | Pass Interference on Washington, 14 yardsJudgment calls | +3% ORE | ORE: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 2:34 | A. Sappington made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 2 of 5 from 45+ before | +4% ORE | ORE: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 8:54 | Washington converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% WASH | WASH: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 7:55 | Oregon converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +5% ORE | ORE: Turnover on downs |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Oregon 93% · Washington 7%
- Final margin
- Oregon by 12
- Luck in points
- 2.2 for Oregon
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Oregon by 9.8
- Replay with same day's form
- Oregon 33% · Washington 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Oregon · 
Washington
More from Week 14 2025
- Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
- Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
- Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner