Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Wisconsin at Minnesota, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Minnesota beat Wisconsin 17–7, but the replays lean toward Wisconsin: it takes 6 of 10 with the same day's form.
Before kickoff Wisconsin was a 56% favorite.
Final
 Wisconsin Badgers | 7 |
|---|---|
 Minnesota Golden Gophers | 17 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +62 Minnesota very lucky · −62 Wisconsin
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Wisconsin wins 6, Minnesota wins 4.
- 1 WIS 24 MINN 0
- 2 WIS 24 MINN 7
- 3 WIS 14 MINN 0
- 4 WIS 10 MINN 0
- 5 WIS 13 MINN 7
- 6 WIS 3 MINN 0
- 7 WIS 21 MINN 24
- 8 WIS 7 MINN 13
- 9 WIS 3 MINN 13
- 10 WIS 10 MINN 26
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Wisconsin wins 62% of them, Minnesota 38%, counting the 9% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Minnesota by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Wisconsin by 17+ | 17.6% |
| Wisconsin by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Wisconsin by 1–8 | 23.5% |
| Level after regulation | 8.6% |
| Minnesota by 1–8 | 17.8% |
| Minnesota by 9–16 | 9.3% |
| Minnesota by 17+ | 4.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- B. Denaburg, 38 yds blocked · 74% expected
- B. Denaburg, 33 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Wisconsin 2 for 9 yards, Minnesota 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:53 | Illegal Substitution on Wisconsin, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MINN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 10:45 | False Start on Wisconsin, 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% MINN +0.7 pts |
| Q4 7:18 | Illegal Formation on Minnesota, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% WIS +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Minnesota’s chance of winning
As low as 42% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:04 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% MINN | MINN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:54 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +4% WIS | WIS: Turnover |
| 3 | Q1 8:11 | Wisconsin fumbled and Minnesota recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% MINN | WIS: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 6:47 | B. Denaburg had a 38-yard field goal blockedKicks · 74% expected for him | +5% WIS | MINN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 11:24 | Wisconsin was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +4% MINN | WIS: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 2:45 | Minnesota converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% MINN | MINN: End of half |
| 7 | Q2 0:27 | Wisconsin converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected | +5% WIS | WIS: Turnover |
| 8 | Q3 13:58 | Wisconsin converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% WIS | WIS: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Wisconsin 12% · Minnesota 88%
- Final margin
- Minnesota by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Minnesota
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Minnesota by 6.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Wisconsin 62% · Minnesota 38% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Wisconsin · 
Minnesota
More from Week 14 2025
- Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
- Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
- Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
- Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner