Week 14 2025 · November 28, 2025
Iowa at Nebraska, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Iowa beat Nebraska 40–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 8 of 10.
Before kickoff Iowa was a 64% favorite.
Final
 Iowa Hawkeyes | 40 |
|---|---|
 Nebraska Cornhuskers | 16 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Iowa about even · −24 Nebraska
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Iowa wins 8, Nebraska wins 2.
- 1 IOWA 38 NEB 7
- 2 IOWA 24 NEB 0
- 3 IOWA 23 NEB 3
- 4 IOWA 28 NEB 14
- 5 IOWA 21 NEB 10
- 6 IOWA 16 NEB 7
- 7 IOWA 23 NEB 17
- 8 IOWA 17 NEB 14
- 9 IOWA 17 NEB 20
- 10 IOWA 10 NEB 20
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Iowa wins 76% of them, Nebraska 24%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Iowa by 24.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Iowa by 17+ | 28.1% |
| Iowa by 9–16 | 21.1% |
| Iowa by 1–8 | 22.2% |
| Level after regulation | 6.7% |
| Nebraska by 1–8 | 13.5% |
| Nebraska by 9–16 | 5.7% |
| Nebraska by 17+ | 2.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- D. Stevens, 41 yds made · 73% expected
- K. Cunanan, 31 yds made · 86% expected
- K. Cunanan, 29 yds made · 88% expected
- K. Cunanan, 35 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Iowa 4 for 45 yards, Nebraska 5 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:30 | Face Mask on Nebraska, 15 yards | +2% IOWA +0.9 pts |
| Q2 7:31 | Holding on Iowa, 10 yards | +2% NEB +1.1 pts |
| Q2 1:12 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 13 yards | +4% IOWA +1.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offside on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% IOWA +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:30 | Illegal Shift on Iowa, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NEB +2.7 pts |
| Q3 11:10 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Iowa, 15 yards | +1% NEB +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:27 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 15 yards | +2% IOWA +0.9 pts |
| Q3 5:55 | Illegal Substitution on Nebraska, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% IOWA +0.2 pts |
| Q4 7:19 | Pass Interference on Iowa, 15 yards | 0% NEB +1.4 pts |
When it happened
Nebraska’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:35 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +3% NEB | IOWA: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:54 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +3% NEB | IOWA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 4:48 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +6% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 4 | Q1 2:49 | Nebraska converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +4% NEB | NEB: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:01 | Iowa converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +5% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 1:12 | Personal Foul on Nebraska, 13 yardsJudgment calls | +4% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 11:42 | Iowa was stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected | +3% NEB | IOWA: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:47 | Iowa converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +3% IOWA | IOWA: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Iowa 100% · Nebraska 0%
- Final margin
- Iowa by 24
- Luck in points
- 7.8 for Iowa
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Iowa by 16.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Iowa 76% · Nebraska 24% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Iowa · 
Nebraska
More from Week 14 2025
- Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
- Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
- Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner