Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Maryland vs Michigan State, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Michigan State beat Maryland 38–28, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Michigan State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: kicks alone were worth 18 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Before kickoff Michigan State was a 60% favorite. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:38 left): S. O'Haire missed a 27-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to Michigan State.
Final
 Maryland Terrapins | 28 |
|---|---|
 Michigan State Spartans | 38 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +45 Michigan State lucky · −45 Maryland
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Maryland wins 5, Michigan State wins 5.
- 1 MD 62 MSU 34
- 2 MD 38 MSU 20
- 3 MD 31 MSU 20
- 4 MD 37 MSU 31
- 5 MD 31 MSU 28
- 6 MD 31 MSU 34
- 7 MD 30 MSU 37
- 8 MD 24 MSU 36
- 9 MD 28 MSU 49
- 10 MD 17 MSU 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Maryland wins 45% of them, Michigan State 55%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Michigan State by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Maryland by 17+ | 14.3% |
| Maryland by 9–16 | 12.0% |
| Maryland by 1–8 | 17.7% |
| Level after regulation | 5.0% |
| Michigan State by 1–8 | 18.4% |
| Michigan State by 9–16 | 13.9% |
| Michigan State by 17+ | 18.9% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Connington, 25 yds made · 90% expected
- S. O'Haire, 27 yds missed · 92% expected
Penalties: Maryland 8 for 75 yards, Michigan State 7 for 50 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Pass Interference on Maryland, 9 yards | +1% MSU +0.3 pts |
| Q1 15:00 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.3 pts |
| Q1 6:54 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% MD +1.8 pts |
| Q1 4:52 | Holding on Maryland, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +4% MSU +2.3 pts |
| Q1 4:52 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.8 pts |
| Q1 4:52 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MSU +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:23 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% MD +0.7 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 13 yards | +2% MSU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:40 | False Start on Maryland, 5 yards · pre-snap | +10% MSU +1.2 pts |
| Q2 5:37 | False Start on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q2 2:00 | Personal Foul on Maryland, 15 yards | +2% MSU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:42 | Holding on Michigan State, 10 yards | +2% MD +0.6 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | Illegal Formation on Michigan State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MD +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:22 | Personal Foul on Michigan State, 15 yards | +6% MD +1.6 pts |
| Q4 2:54 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on Maryland, 13 yards | 0% MSU +1.5 pts |
When it happened
Michigan State’s chance of winning
As low as 49% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 4:52 | Maryland converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expectedMaryland was stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 21% expectedHolding on Maryland, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment callsFalse Start on Maryland, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsFalse Start on Maryland, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MSU | MD: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 8:40 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedMaryland converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expectedFalse Start on Maryland, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% MSU | MSU: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:41 | Maryland converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +8% MD | MD: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q3 1:42 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expectedHolding on Michigan State, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +5% MSU | MSU: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 12:08 | Maryland converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expectedMaryland converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expectedMaryland was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +15% MD | MD: Missed field goal |
| 6 | Q4 7:38 | Michigan State converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expectedS. O'Haire missed a 27-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him | +19% MSU | MSU: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 3:01 | Maryland was stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% MSU | MD: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 1:56 | Michigan State converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +8% MSU | MSU: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Maryland 8% · Michigan State 92%
- Final margin
- Michigan State by 10
- Luck in points
- 1.8 for Michigan State
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Michigan State by 8.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Maryland 45% · Michigan State 55% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Maryland · 
Michigan State
More from Week 14 2025
- Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Penn State at Rutgers PSU 40–36 · replay 51% for the winner
- Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner