Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Penn State at Rutgers, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Penn State beat Rutgers 40–36, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, Penn State wins 5 of 10. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Penn State.
Before kickoff Penn State was an 82% favorite. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 7:27 left): Return touchdown by Penn State, worth 79 points of win probability to Penn State.
Final
 Penn State Nittany Lions | 40 |
|---|---|
 Rutgers Scarlet Knights | 36 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +49 Penn State lucky · −49 Rutgers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Penn State wins 5, Rutgers wins 5.
- 1 PSU 62 RUTG 35
- 2 PSU 38 RUTG 20
- 3 PSU 42 RUTG 31
- 4 PSU 35 RUTG 28
- 5 PSU 31 RUTG 28
- 6 PSU 38 RUTG 41
- 7 PSU 13 RUTG 20
- 8 PSU 24 RUTG 34
- 9 PSU 24 RUTG 38
- 10 PSU 27 RUTG 49
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Penn State wins 51% of them, Rutgers 49%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Penn State by 4.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Penn State by 17+ | 15.3% |
| Penn State by 9–16 | 16.0% |
| Penn State by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Rutgers by 1–8 | 24.4% |
| Rutgers by 9–16 | 11.9% |
| Rutgers by 17+ | 10.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- R. Barker, 31 yds made · 89% expected
- R. Barker, 29 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Penn State 6 for 49 yards, Rutgers 6 for 42 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 3:27 | Illegal Substitution on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% RUTG +2.6 pts |
| Q1 1:22 | Holding on Penn State, 10 yards | +1% RUTG +0.6 pts |
| Q1 0:22 | Offside on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PSU +0.7 pts |
| Q3 11:05 | Pass Interference on Rutgers, 11 yards | +1% PSU +0.4 pts |
| Q3 8:41 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +3% PSU +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:33 | False Start on Rutgers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PSU +0.6 pts |
| Q3 7:05 | Holding on Penn State, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +1% RUTG +0.7 pts |
| Q3 1:16 | Face Mask on Rutgers, 1 yard, wiping out the play | 0% RUTG +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:43 | Delay of Game on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% RUTG +1.2 pts |
| Q4 11:24 | False Start on Penn State, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% RUTG +0.5 pts |
| Q4 3:50 | Personal Foul on Penn State, 14 yards | +2% RUTG +0.9 pts |
| Q4 2:41 | Holding on Rutgers, 10 yards | +4% PSU +1.1 pts |
When it happened
Rutgers’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 7:45 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +6% RUTG | RUTG: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 15:00 | Rutgers’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +5% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 11:43 | Delay of Game on Penn State, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +6% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q4 10:19 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +13% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 5 | Q4 7:27 | The game turned hereRutgers fumbled and Penn State recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by Penn StateSpecial teams | +79% PSU | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 5:46 | Rutgers converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +14% RUTG | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q4 4:21 | Rutgers was stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 67% expected | +8% PSU | RUTG: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | Q4 3:55 | Rutgers was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 79% expected | +11% PSU | – |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Penn State 83% · Rutgers 17%
- Final margin
- Penn State by 4
- Luck in points
- 1.5 for Rutgers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Penn State by 5.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Penn State 51% · Rutgers 49% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Penn State · 
Rutgers
More from Week 14 2025
- Oregon at Washington ORE 26–14 · replay 34% for the winner
- Wisconsin at Minnesota MINN 17–7 · replay 38% for the winner
- Maryland vs Michigan State MSU 38–28 · replay 55% for the winner
- Iowa at Nebraska IOWA 40–16 · replay 76% for the winner
- Northwestern at Illinois ILL 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- UCLA at USC USC 29–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Ohio State at Michigan OSU 27–9 · replay 95% for the winner
- Indiana at Purdue IU 56–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner