Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Army at UTSA, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Army beat UTSA 27–24, but the replays lean toward UTSA: it takes 8 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 15 points of win probability to Army.
Before kickoff UTSA was a 71% favorite. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:46 left): Return touchdown by Army, worth 25 points of win probability to Army.
Final
 Army Black Knights | 27 |
|---|---|
 UTSA Roadrunners | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +76 Army very lucky · −76 UTSA
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Army wins 2, UTSA wins 8.
- 1 ARMY 14 UTSA 0
- 2 ARMY 21 UTSA 17
- 3 ARMY 17 UTSA 20
- 4 ARMY 9 UTSA 13
- 5 ARMY 7 UTSA 13
- 6 ARMY 14 UTSA 23
- 7 ARMY 3 UTSA 15
- 8 ARMY 14 UTSA 29
- 9 ARMY 7 UTSA 26
- 10 ARMY 3 UTSA 30
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Army wins 24% of them, UTSA 76%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Army by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Army by 17+ | 3.4% |
| Army by 9–16 | 6.8% |
| Army by 1–8 | 13.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.5% |
| UTSA by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| UTSA by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| UTSA by 17+ | 28.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- M. Petro, 32 yds made · 85% expected
- D. Jones, 27 yds made · 89% expected
- D. Jones, 37 yds made · 77% expected
Penalties: Army 0 for 0 yards, UTSA 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:00 | Offside on UTSA, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ARMY +0.8 pts |
When it happened
UTSA’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 89%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 3:23 | Army was stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% ARMY | ARMY: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 2:59 | D. Jones made a 27-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +7% UTSA | ARMY: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 0:46 | Return touchdown by ArmySpecial teams | +25% ARMY | ARMY: Field goal |
| 4 | Q3 12:09 | UTSA was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +8% ARMY | UTSA: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 9:10 | UTSA converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 42% expected | +7% UTSA | UTSA: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | Q4 6:59 | Army converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected | +10% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:16 | Army converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +17% ARMY | ARMY: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 2:49 | Army converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +17% ARMY | ARMY: End of game |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Army 60% · UTSA 40%
- Final margin
- Army by 3
- Luck in points
- 1.3 for Army
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Army by 1.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Army 24% · UTSA 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Army · 
UTSA
More from Week 14 2025
- UAB at Tulsa UAB 31–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Navy at Memphis NAVY 28–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ECU 42–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Temple at North Texas UNT 52–25 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rice at South Florida USF 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Tulane TULN 27–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner