Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
East Carolina at Florida Atlantic, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
East Carolina beat Florida Atlantic 42–3, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, East Carolina wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff East Carolina was a 68% favorite.
Final
 East Carolina Pirates | 42 |
|---|---|
 Florida Atlantic Owls | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +1 East Carolina about even · −1 Florida Atlantic
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. East Carolina wins 10, Florida Atlantic wins 0.
- 1 ECU 63 FAU 7
- 2 ECU 56 FAU 7
- 3 ECU 54 FAU 10
- 4 ECU 53 FAU 13
- 5 ECU 48 FAU 12
- 6 ECU 45 FAU 13
- 7 ECU 40 FAU 13
- 8 ECU 45 FAU 24
- 9 ECU 41 FAU 24
- 10 ECU 26 FAU 17
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
East Carolina wins 99% of them, Florida Atlantic 1%. The line is what actually happened: East Carolina by 39.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| East Carolina by 17+ | 91.5% |
| East Carolina by 9–16 | 5.4% |
| East Carolina by 1–8 | 2.1% |
| Level after regulation | 0.2% |
| Florida Atlantic by 1–8 | 0.7% |
| Florida Atlantic by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Florida Atlantic by 17+ | 0.0% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
Penalties: East Carolina 11 for 87 yards, Florida Atlantic 5 for 38 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 6:42 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 9 yards | +1% FAU +1.9 pts |
| Q1 3:09 | Illegal Formation on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% FAU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 14:06 | Holding on East Carolina, 8 yards | 0% FAU +0.9 pts |
| Q2 9:15 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | +1% ECU +1.5 pts |
| Q2 8:55 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.5 pts |
| Q2 6:43 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% FAU +0.2 pts |
| Q2 3:42 | Pass Interference on Florida Atlantic, 3 yards | 0% ECU +1.9 pts |
| Q2 2:14 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | 0% ECU +0.1 pts |
| Q2 1:42 | Illegal Formation on Florida Atlantic, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% ECU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | Holding on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% FAU +1.2 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | Encroachment on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.3 pts |
| Q3 8:01 | False Start on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.3 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yards | 0% ECU +1.3 pts |
| Q4 7:19 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on East Carolina, 10 yards | 0% FAU +1.5 pts |
| Q4 3:39 | Unsportsmanlike Conduct on East Carolina, 15 yards | 0% FAU +3.4 pts |
| Q4 3:39 | Offside on East Carolina, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% FAU +0.5 pts |
When it happened
Florida Atlantic’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:12 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +2% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 13:09 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected | +3% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q1 10:19 | Florida Atlantic fumbled and East Carolina recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +2% ECU | FAU: Punt |
| 4 | Q1 9:26 | Florida Atlantic was stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +1% ECU | FAU: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 6:42 | Pass Interference on East Carolina, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +1% FAU | FAU: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 2:50 | East Carolina was stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expected | +1% FAU | ECU: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 13:01 | East Carolina converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +1% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 9:15 | Holding on Florida Atlantic, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +1% ECU | ECU: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
East Carolina 100% · Florida Atlantic 0%
- Final margin
- East Carolina by 39
- Luck in points
- 5.9 for East Carolina
- Luck-adjusted margin
- East Carolina by 33.1
- Replay with same day's form
- East Carolina 99% · Florida Atlantic 1% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
East Carolina · 
Florida Atlantic
More from Week 14 2025
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- UAB at Tulsa UAB 31–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Navy at Memphis NAVY 28–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- Temple at North Texas UNT 52–25 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rice at South Florida USF 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Tulane TULN 27–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner