Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
UAB at Tulsa, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
UAB beat Tulsa 31–24, but the replays lean toward Tulsa: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 31 points of win probability to UAB.
Before kickoff Tulsa was a 73% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:26 left): Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 14 points of win probability to Tulsa.
Final
 UAB Blazers | 31 |
|---|---|
 Tulsa Golden Hurricane | 24 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +67 UAB very lucky · −67 Tulsa
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. UAB wins 3, Tulsa wins 7.
- 1 UAB 24 TLSA 7
- 2 UAB 28 TLSA 20
- 3 UAB 17 TLSA 14
- 4 UAB 24 TLSA 27
- 5 UAB 10 TLSA 14
- 6 UAB 26 TLSA 34
- 7 UAB 7 TLSA 20
- 8 UAB 3 TLSA 20
- 9 UAB 14 TLSA 37
- 10 UAB 0 TLSA 28
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
UAB wins 33% of them, Tulsa 67%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: UAB by 7.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| UAB by 17+ | 6.0% |
| UAB by 9–16 | 8.7% |
| UAB by 1–8 | 15.8% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| Tulsa by 1–8 | 22.6% |
| Tulsa by 9–16 | 18.1% |
| Tulsa by 17+ | 23.8% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- S. Morgan, 26 yds made · 91% expected
- J. Delange, 31 yds made · 87% expected
- J. Delange, 49 yds missed · 58% expected
Penalties: UAB 3 for 27 yards, Tulsa 1 for 5 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 9:22 | False Start on Tulsa, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% UAB +0.7 pts |
| Q2 9:00 | Pass Interference on UAB, 12 yards | +5% TLSA +2.4 pts |
| Q3 3:26 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +14% TLSA +4.0 pts |
| Q4 14:15 | False Start on UAB, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TLSA +1.2 pts |
When it happened
Tulsa’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 90%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 11:00 | UAB was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +10% TLSA | UAB: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 10:24 | UAB converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +7% UAB | UAB: Missed field goal |
| 3 | Q3 6:53 | J. Delange missed a 49-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 7 of 7 from 45+ before | +7% TLSA | UAB: Punt |
| 4 | Q3 3:26 | Holding on UAB, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +14% TLSA | TLSA: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 9:39 | Tulsa was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +7% UAB | TLSA: Punt |
| 6 | Q4 7:30 | UAB converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +13% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:34 | UAB converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected | +11% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 4:01 | UAB converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected | +8% UAB | UAB: Touchdown |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
UAB 71% · Tulsa 29%
- Final margin
- UAB by 7
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for UAB
- Luck-adjusted margin
- UAB by 3.3
- Replay with same day's form
- UAB 33% · Tulsa 67% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
UAB · 
Tulsa
More from Week 14 2025
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- Navy at Memphis NAVY 28–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ECU 42–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Temple at North Texas UNT 52–25 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rice at South Florida USF 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- Charlotte at Tulane TULN 27–0 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner