Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Charlotte at Tulane, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Tulane beat Charlotte 27–0, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, Tulane wins 10 of 10.
Before kickoff Tulane was a 98% favorite.
Final
 Charlotte 49ers | 0 |
|---|---|
 Tulane Green Wave | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index 0 Tulane about even · 0 Charlotte
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Charlotte wins 0, Tulane wins 10.
- 1 CLT 6 TULN 21
- 2 CLT 3 TULN 24
- 3 CLT 0 TULN 28
- 4 CLT 3 TULN 35
- 5 CLT 10 TULN 45
- 6 CLT 7 TULN 45
- 7 CLT 0 TULN 41
- 8 CLT 0 TULN 45
- 9 CLT 3 TULN 52
- 10 CLT 3 TULN 61
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Charlotte wins 0% of them, Tulane 100%. The line is what actually happened: Tulane by 27.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Charlotte by 17+ | 0.0% |
| Charlotte by 9–16 | 0.1% |
| Charlotte by 1–8 | 0.0% |
| Level after regulation | 0.1% |
| Tulane by 1–8 | 1.1% |
| Tulane by 9–16 | 2.1% |
| Tulane by 17+ | 96.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
No play in this game swung win probability by luck.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Boyd, 25 yds missed · 91% expected
- P. Durkin, 55 yds missed · 47% expected
- P. Durkin, 36 yds made · 81% expected
- P. Durkin, 52 yds made · 52% expected
Penalties: Charlotte 5 for 40 yards, Tulane 2 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 11:25 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +1.4 pts |
| Q3 11:55 | Offside on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +0.4 pts |
| Q3 10:21 | Holding on Tulane, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CLT +2.2 pts |
| Q3 9:47 | Holding on Charlotte, 10 yards | 0% TULN +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:34 | Unnecessary Roughness on Tulane, 15 yards | 0% CLT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TULN +1.7 pts |
| Q4 8:45 | Unnecessary Roughness on Charlotte, 15 yards | 0% TULN +0.9 pts |
When it happened
Tulane’s chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:25 | False Start on Charlotte, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +0% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q1 11:03 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% TULN | CLT: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 9:40 | Tulane converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +0% TULN | TULN: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q1 6:13 | Tulane converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +0% TULN | TULN: Turnover |
| 5 | Q1 2:37 | Charlotte converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +0% CLT | CLT: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 9:17 | Charlotte was stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +0% TULN | CLT: Punt |
| 7 | Q2 8:19 | Tulane fumbled and Charlotte recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +0% CLT | TULN: Punt |
| 8 | Q2 6:08 | L. Boyd missed a 25-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +0% TULN | CLT: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Charlotte 2% · Tulane 98%
- Final margin
- Tulane by 27
- Luck in points
- 13.4 for Tulane
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Tulane by 13.6
- Replay with same day's form
- Charlotte 0% · Tulane 100% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Charlotte · 
Tulane
More from Week 14 2025
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- UAB at Tulsa UAB 31–24 · replay 33% for the winner
- Navy at Memphis NAVY 28–17 · replay 42% for the winner
- East Carolina at Florida Atlantic ECU 42–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Temple at North Texas UNT 52–25 · replay 100% for the winner
- Rice at South Florida USF 52–3 · replay 100% for the winner
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner