Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Georgia Southern at Marshall, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Georgia Southern beat Marshall 24–19, but the replays lean toward Marshall: it takes 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 16 points of win probability to Georgia Southern.
Before kickoff Marshall was a 75% favorite.
Final
 Georgia Southern Eagles | 24 |
|---|---|
 Marshall Thundering Herd | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +69 Georgia Southern very lucky · −69 Marshall
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Georgia Southern wins 3, Marshall wins 7.
- 1 GASO 42 MRSH 21
- 2 GASO 42 MRSH 34
- 3 GASO 24 MRSH 21
- 4 GASO 28 MRSH 30
- 5 GASO 27 MRSH 31
- 6 GASO 21 MRSH 28
- 7 GASO 21 MRSH 31
- 8 GASO 21 MRSH 37
- 9 GASO 24 MRSH 45
- 10 GASO 7 MRSH 35
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Georgia Southern wins 31% of them, Marshall 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Georgia Southern by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Georgia Southern by 17+ | 6.5% |
| Georgia Southern by 9–16 | 7.8% |
| Georgia Southern by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Level after regulation | 4.3% |
| Marshall by 1–8 | 23.7% |
| Marshall by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Marshall by 17+ | 24.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- L. Quinn, 42 yds made · 69% expected
- L. Quinn, 24 yds made · 93% expected
- T. Bryant, 49 yds missed · 57% expected
- T. Bryant, 24 yds made · 92% expected
Penalties: Georgia Southern 2 for 15 yards, Marshall 3 for 27 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 10:32 | False Start on Marshall, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% GASO +0.6 pts |
| Q3 5:22 | Pass Interference on Marshall, 7 yards | +3% GASO +2.3 pts |
| Q3 3:52 | Delay of Game on Georgia Southern, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% MRSH +1.6 pts |
| Q4 12:27 | Targeting on Marshall, 15 yards | +2% GASO +1.6 pts |
| Q4 9:41 | Illegal Use of Hands on Georgia Southern, 10 yards | +3% MRSH +1.3 pts |
When it happened
Marshall’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 82%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 2:12 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +4% GASO | GASO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:41 | Marshall converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% MRSH | MRSH: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 5:38 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +5% MRSH | GASO: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 9:41 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected | +4% GASO | GASO: Field goal |
| 5 | Q3 6:37 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% GASO | GASO: Field goal |
| 6 | Q3 3:52 | Georgia Southern was stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expectedDelay of Game on Georgia Southern, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +4% MRSH | GASO: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 1:04 | Georgia Southern converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% GASO | GASO: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 13:14 | Georgia Southern converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +4% GASO | GASO: Turnover |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Georgia Southern 70% · Marshall 30%
- Final margin
- Georgia Southern by 5
- Luck in points
- 1.6 for Georgia Southern
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Georgia Southern by 3.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Georgia Southern 31% · Marshall 69% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Georgia Southern · 
Marshall
More from Week 14 2025
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Arkansas State at App State ARST 30–29 · replay 32% for the winner
- Troy at Southern Miss TROY 28–18 · replay 63% for the winner
- Georgia State at Old Dominion ODU 27–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- South Alabama at Texas State TXST 49–26 · replay 100% for the winner
- James Madison at Coastal Carolina JMU 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner