Week 14 2025 · November 29, 2025
Troy at Southern Miss, Week 14 2025: who deserved to win?
Troy beat Southern Miss 28–18, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 6 of 10.
Before kickoff Southern Miss was a 68% favorite. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:22 left): Southern Miss converted 3rd & 18, worth 9 points of win probability to Southern Miss.
Final
 Troy Trojans | 28 |
|---|---|
 Southern Miss Golden Eagles | 18 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Troy lucky · −37 Southern Miss
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Troy wins 6, Southern Miss wins 4.
- 1 TROY 41 USM 13
- 2 TROY 23 USM 3
- 3 TROY 28 USM 14
- 4 TROY 24 USM 14
- 5 TROY 23 USM 17
- 6 TROY 20 USM 17
- 7 TROY 24 USM 27
- 8 TROY 20 USM 27
- 9 TROY 17 USM 31
- 10 TROY 20 USM 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Troy wins 63% of them, Southern Miss 37%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Troy by 10.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Troy by 17+ | 26.1% |
| Troy by 9–16 | 16.8% |
| Troy by 1–8 | 19.6% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Southern Miss by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Southern Miss by 9–16 | 9.8% |
| Southern Miss by 17+ | 7.6% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance), and what happened.
- C. Wilbanks, 20 yds missed · 94% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 27 yds made · 88% expected
- C. Wilbanks, 46 yds missed · 60% expected
Penalties: Troy 11 for 87 yards, Southern Miss 6 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count toward luck, pre-snap fouls mostly don’t. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 12:05 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +1.0 pts |
| Q1 5:11 | Kick Catch Interference on Troy, 15 yards | +2% USM +1.2 pts |
| Q1 3:23 | Pass Interference on Troy, 15 yards | +1% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q1 3:03 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.6 pts |
| Q1 2:23 | Pass Interference on Troy, 10 yards | +1% USM +0.5 pts |
| Q1 1:19 | Holding on Southern Miss, 13 yards | +1% TROY +0.8 pts |
| Q1 0:43 | Offside on Troy, 3 yards · pre-snap | +1% USM +0.7 pts |
| Q2 0:09 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +2% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:08 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards | +5% TROY +1.5 pts |
| Q3 12:05 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TROY +1.9 pts |
| Q3 10:02 | Holding on Troy, 9 yards | +3% USM +1.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% USM +0.5 pts |
| Q4 14:23 | Holding on Troy, 10 yards | +7% USM +2.0 pts |
| Q4 12:16 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TROY +0.7 pts |
| Q4 2:00 | False Start on Southern Miss, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TROY +0.3 pts |
| Q4 1:29 | Illegal Substitution on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.1 pts |
| Q4 0:31 | Offside on Troy, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% USM +0.6 pts |
When it happened
Southern Miss’s chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:20 | Troy converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 54% expectedC. Wilbanks missed a 20-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him | +7% TROY | TROY: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 13:23 | Troy was stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 82% expected | +8% USM | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q3 12:05 | Holding on Southern Miss, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TROY | TROY: Turnover on downs |
| 4 | Q3 5:11 | Troy was stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +9% USM | TROY: Punt |
| 5 | Q3 3:22 | Southern Miss converted 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 15% expected | +9% USM | USM: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 14:23 | Holding on Troy, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +7% USM | USM: Punt |
| 7 | Q4 12:48 | Southern Miss was stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +7% TROY | USM: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 3:27 | Southern Miss’s two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% USM | USM: Missed field goal |
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Troy 99% · Southern Miss 1%
- Final margin
- Troy by 10
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for Southern Miss
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Troy by 13.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Troy 63% · Southern Miss 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and expected points from CollegeFootballData.com via cfbfastR; win probability from our own model of the score, the possession and the betting line; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record. College play-by-play has no charting of drops or interception-worthy throws and no injury reports, so those kinds of luck aren’t counted here.
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2025 games · 
Troy · 
Southern Miss
More from Week 14 2025
- UL Monroe at Louisiana UL 30–27 · replay 13% for the winner
- Georgia Southern at Marshall GASO 24–19 · replay 31% for the winner
- Arkansas State at App State ARST 30–29 · replay 32% for the winner
- Georgia State at Old Dominion ODU 27–10 · replay 97% for the winner
- South Alabama at Texas State TXST 49–26 · replay 100% for the winner
- James Madison at Coastal Carolina JMU 59–10 · replay 100% for the winner
- SMU at California CAL 38–35 · replay 18% for the winner
- Utah at Kansas UTAH 31–21 · replay 20% for the winner
- Army at UTSA ARMY 27–24 · replay 24% for the winner
- San Diego State at New Mexico UNM 23–17 · replay 26% for the winner
- Texas A&M at Texas TEX 27–17 · replay 31% for the winner
- Middle Tennessee at New Mexico State MTSU 31–24 · replay 32% for the winner